Latest indications are that the next tropical threat could arise in late June into early July, and that this threat could be more formidable than when Andrea formed.
The long range forecast over the seven day period from June 20 to June 27 depicted above shows upper level divergence anomalies. Areas of green depict below normal anomalies and thus increased chances for enhanced tropical convection, while above normal anomalies signal a less favorable environment for tropical convection. The GFS Ensembles project these divergence anomalies to drop into the below-normal range and increase the risk of tropical cyclone formation. This would supposedly be associated with a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave making its way to phases that are favorable for tropical cyclone formation. However, a comparison to other models suggests that the GFS Ensembles may be a bit too fast with the movement of this MJO wave into favorable phases, and that is why early July remains on the table for timing.
The GFS Ensembles, between June 23 and June 28, then predict a large swath of the Gulf of Mexico to be under the influence of rather substantial low mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies. This would seem to indicate the willingness of the GFS Ensembles to attempt and formulate an environment favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Towards the end of this particular GFS Ensemble run, the SLP anomalies are even lower than what is shown above, leading me to believe there is a growing consensus that late June into early July is a reasonable timeframe for the Atlantic basin's second shot at tropical cyclone formation. Support by the aforementioned MJO wave would make this second shot the more formidable of the two.