Thursday, June 13, 2013

Colorado Wildfires Rage; No End in Sight

The fires in Colorado continue to ravage the state, with the Black Forest fire doubling in size yesterday and becoming the most destructive in state history.

Satellite imagery above shows smoke from these fires billowing across Colorado and even into the western Plains as meteorological summer is only 13 days old. Poor winter conditions, combined with an ongoing drought through the Plains and Western states have led to the enhancement of annual wildfires.

Considering the atmospheric pattern currently in place appears to have enhanced wildfires (especially the Black Forest fire), it is unlikely we are going to see a break from these fires. The pattern coming up in the next 16 days involves little to no precipitation (under 1.00'' of rain) for areas currently experiencing these wildfires. With temperatures likely to stay high, and winds unlikely to cease in the next few days, it is highly likely that these ongoing wildfires will be enhanced.

Model projections from the HYSPLIT model suggest smoke from these wildfires will track north across Wyoming, Montana and North Dakota before shifting well into Canada. From there, any smoke still prevalent in the air mass will either circle around in Canada and shift east or dissipate in the western portion of that nation.

Regardless of where the smoke goes, it is the unfortunate probability that the next several days will see an enhancement of ongoing wildfires in the state of Colorado.



Josh Adams said...

Will the winter outlook feature any forcast graphical maps?

Andrew said...

Although I will use multiple graphics, I will not be using my own forecast maps.