Sunday, June 16, 2013

Long Range Risk Analysis - June 16, 2013

 Note: This is a new idea I had for delivering text-based messages about long range risks (varying by season) to the public. This is an example of what would be issued (while it's an example, the information is an actual forecast). Feedback is welcome.

Outlook valid for the next 15-20 days.

Overall Synopsis
Closed low coming onshore in the Pacific Northwest will allow prolonged high pressure development in the Plains, eventually extending into the Midwest. Closed low eventually is torn up and leads to zonal flow across the United States before re-emergence of prolonged high pressure development,

Severe Weather Outlook: Low/Medium Activity
Closed low entering Pacific Northwest will allow severe weather opportunities in the Southern Plains, limited only to Texas and New Mexico into Colorado at this time. Northern Plains may become involved for a short period with low expectations in a couple of days. Long range outlook becomes quiet as zonal flow takes over before the risk of severe weather goes on the upswing as we enter prolonged ridging over the Plains.

Heat Outlook: High Activity
Two periods of prolonged high pressure formation in the Plains and portions of Midwest will lead to increased flows of heat north into mainly the Plains area. Eventual zonal flow and long range Death Ridge formation potential may allow this heat to openly enter much of the nation. Long range outlook remains unusually toasty in this scenario.

Tropical Outlook: Low Activity
Lack of enhanced tropical convection over the Atlantic basin will not permit any sustained tropical cyclone formation. Current area of interest (Invest 93) is moving on land, and next chance at development appears to be over 10 days away.



Anonymous said...

I really like this! Thank you for keeping us in the know! Very much appreciated!

Anonymous said...

Our dew points have been unusually high in Indiana so far this summer. Too many days in the 60's and 70's. Is there a ridge pushing up from Guam somewhere? Temps have been so much nicer than the last three summers. It would be great if the dew points would just drop. Any luck in that or is that heat hitting the plains going to hit us too.

Andrew said...

Bree: Glad you like it!

Anonymous: The heat should stay in the Plains but is likely to drift over into Indiana at some point during the next 15-20 days.

Anonymous said...


I liked this a ton man, keep doin it!