Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Tropical Storm Andrea - Bulletin #1

As we hinted at on May 28th, satellite imagery and aircraft reconnaissance  confirms the formation of Tropical Storm Andrea at this hour, allowing the Atlantic tropical season to get off to a fast start. Satellite imagery depicts a strong eastern flank of Andrea but a very quiet western side to this tropical storm. Considering the conditions in the Gulf of Mexico aren't totally primed for tropical formation, the rather unusual build of this cyclone isn't that extraordinary. Satellite imagery also indicates clouds from Andrea have already overspread Florida, and it is in Florida where I expect the primary landfall to occur.

Atmospheric steering winds for this afternoon over the Atlantic basin are shown to be trying to push Andrea due north into Alabama, and the official National Hurricane Center track predicts the tropical storm to move slightly north in coming hours. However, going into the next few days, it is anticipated that these steering winds will begin to gain a more eastward component, allowing Andrea to maintain less of a northward track and more of an eastward track, combining to make for a northeast movement.

Landfall is expected to occur Thursday afternoon.
I believe the potential landfall zone will extend from the immediate vicinity of Cross City to Sarasota, Florida. This zone is where the models are converging for a landfall. The yellow star indicates where I believe the cyclone will make landfall. This landfall spot would be right around Hudson and New Port Richey. It is expected almost everyone in this potential landfall zone could experience tropical storm force winds and potentially flooding rains. Preparation plans are advised to be activated as the first named system of 2013 becomes the first landfalling system of 2013.


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