Saturday, August 10, 2013

Long Range Hints About the Winter of 2013-2014


As I'm putting together my winter forecast (which comes out on the last day of August at 12:00 PM Central), I'm finding that things we are seeing in the late summer/early fall are already providing hints as to what we can expect this winter. Here are a few of them.

1. The Plains could receive the strongest cold over the winter season.
I mentioned this one on The Weather Centre's Facebook Page, and this stems from, among other things tha have brought this theory to the foreground, a favorable pattern in my analog package. After analysis of correlations, the analog package confirms that the mid level atmospheric flow could experience multiple bouts where the jet stream collapses south and engages the Plains in some seriously cold air.

2. The East Coast will see a temperature battle through the winter.
The temperature battle zone for the US will most likely fall along the East Coast through the winter season, as I anticipate increased probabilities of high pressure formation in the waters east of the Mid-Atlantic. Its close proximity to the US will most likely allow propagation of high pressure westward, partially on land, where it will raise the jet stream and permit warmer air to flow north. On the other hand, a rambunctious jet stream will have the tendency to fight the high pressure formation in the Atlantic, leading to a back-and-forth temperature pattern.

3. Nor'easters return in force
It is quite possible we see the emergence of a hyper-active coastal storm regime over the upcoming winter season. As I mentioned in my Preliminary winter forecast, my analog package and long range models remain steadfast on the idea of a strong East Asian jet stream this winter. A stronger jet stream would increase the potential of stormier weather in that area. Using a 6-10 day gap between a significant East Asia storm and an East US storm, the chances of more coastal storms are on the rise. Above normal sea surface temperatures off the East Coast also help these chances.

NOTE: Keep in mind these are only HINTS and do NOT resemble my current forecast at this time. They are subject to change and may very well do so before the release of my official forecast on August 31.

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

If you can, could you say if the east coast will experience mostly below average temps with some warm snaps, or mostly above avg temps with some cold snaps? Thanks, hoping for some snow along the east coast this winter!

Anonymous said...

I don't think I like your forecast for the Plains! I prey it changes!
bree

Andrew said...

Anonymous at 7:27: It's hard to say at the moment. Based on current trends, I would favor cooler over warmer, but it's all TBD.

Anonymous said...

All it take is the high off the coast to by a little to strong, and there could be days of 50 degree temps for the Mid Atlantic, But I live 200 miles inland. Do you think that storms will track up the Appalachian mountains?

Frank-o said...

Ok....I have lived here in the North West North Carolina Mountains for 61 years. If the models are now all of the sudden saying above ave temps for the East, its for this main reason, If a Bermuda(type) high gets in place and if it gets established, it will block west to east fronts and it will block any cold air from the North. Basically, pushing west to east fronts up and over the Ohio valley, blocking any cold air from the Northeast, which means weeks of warm "dry" air pouring in here and daming up against the App. mountains, this creates a dome over us and we tend to stay warm and dry for weeks on end. I have seen this weather pattern set-up many, many times and it makes for long, warm, dry, boring winter......

Anonymous said...

Hey Andrew.
What is this winter looking like precipitation-wise for the south-central U.S? Namely Texas.
I'm hoping for a wet winter, we need the rain here.

Andrew said...

Anonymous at 5:58: There may be times when such a scenario does happen that way, yes. How many storms go up the Appalachians, however, is TBD.

Frank-o: Current indications are that the East will be more cool than warm, and that depends on if the factor that may influence high pressure formation is still around when winter comes around.

Anonymous at 11:49: I'm still working on the official winter forecast at the moment, so I don't really have much to give you for precipitation and temperatures for anywhere other than what I have posted here thus far.

Anonymous said...

do you think this could be signs of the up coming winter??
this comes from a farmers point of view.......
here in north central kansas this month has been way cooler than normal, we have gotten almost 10 inches of rain so far this month,
i have noticed that the fall crops are starting to mature already,
the wildlife seems to be out eating 24/7, we have a few kittens that were born very very hairy, and i have already seen the wooly caterpillar which is way ahead of time, plus other things that just seem to be way ahead of its time
what do you think, any ideas
anybody????????????????

Anonymous said...

You know the Old Wives Tales ( I cannot believe its called that). state what you have stated, those are the signs to look for if you want to know if its going to be a cold, long,snowy winter! Also, take note...have you seen any heavy spider webs around now ?(thicker, bigger, heavier, then the norm) I am seeing them now around where I live!(Iowa) And my son has seen a wooly worm also, he stated it was very dark black, with some orange (some orange) now back in 2010/2011 winter (the winter the snow kept coming & coming & coming) I seen one early that year to, very dark black, furry! I'm telling you there is something to this old Wives Tale stuff! Its really interesting! That is all they had to go on way back then! (And walnuts are falling from the trees now to). I'm glad we are able to read them now,(Old Wives Tales) its helps alleviate some of the weird things happening now that I've been reading lately regarding why our weather is so messed up now! Our weather is changing back to the way it use to be, way back like I guess when my dad had to go to school with snow drifts over the fence post & of course he had to walk miles just to get to school, oh, & I think he did not even have shoes!(yea, right) I could go on, but, I think I'm being understood! Read the old Wives Tales of how to tell the signs of the upcoming winter! Really fascinating!
& if that is not it, then its the comet we have close to our earth now, now that is a good read!
bree

Anonymous said...

WOW
I have also noticed these spider webs all over (yard, garden, etc..) and yes the walnuts in this area are falling to.
this is very interesting
will have to watch for more things and see what happens............

Anonymous said...

Andrew, I know your winter forecast isn't out yet and you may have something on this on there, or in the future or maybe not. But, I've read of a possible weak to moderate El Nino or conditions related to such developing this fall. But becoming more pronounced throughout the winter months (D,J,F). I didn't think much of it at first, but then I seen a more credible source yesterday with the same situation. I was wondering if it is becoming more possible or are these other sources pushing it too far. Thanks again for all you do.

Dean said...

What do you think will happen in Ohio? We got a lot of rain here, it rained for about two weeks in July. Does this mean we will get more or less snow this winter? Thanks.

Andrew said...

Lots of interesting things in the animal/nature discussion here, thanks to all for bringing them up.

Anonymous at 11:55: If anything, a La Nina is more likely than an El Nino. Those persistent below normal SST anomalies in the Eastern Pacific will be tough to get rid of in a quick period of time.

Dean: There is little (if any) correlation between summer and winter precipitation, unfortunately.

wiiluigi1998 said...

Here in SNJ, I saw TWO wooly worms here spiders are making huge webs in some tiny bushes in my yard. I am starting to get stoked.

Anonymous said...

Andrew, great forecast as always. I was wondering, I do some of my own forecasting for the northeast, what are some analog years you have been using?

Andrew said...

Anonymous at 8:39: My analog set consists of the winters of 1951-1952 and 1962-1963.