Friday, November 29, 2013

December 4-8 Major Winter Storm

It is looking increasingly likely that a winter storm will affect the Plains over the December 4-8 timeframe.

Height anomalies over East Asia in the last several hours suggest the passage of a bout of stormy weather, centered over Japan. This is signified by the deep blues and indicate the presence of such stormy weather. There is a known correlation that indicates storm systems or ridges of high pressure over East Asia can be reciprocated in the United States 6-10 days after the event's occurrence in East Asia. As we see a stormy period begin in East Asia over November 28th, I would expect December 4-8 to be the timeframe for a winter storm in the US as a result of this East Asian correlation. Now that we have been tracking the models for the past several days, and have taken the Lezak Recurring Cycle into account, we are getting some returns on possible tracks for this storm system.

The Lezak Recurring Cycle would indicate that the storm system that passed through the Plains on October 11th should come back to haunt the region, roughly around the December 7th timeframe. As the mid-level chart from October 11th shows above, the system brought its strongest impacts to the Dakotas and Northern Plains, though I suspect that won't be completely the case this time around. For those unfamiliar with the concept, the Lezak Recurring Cycle, or LRC, is a tool developed by meteorologist Gary Lezak that, in essence, can enable forecasters to predict the overall weather pattern months in advance. The gist of the LRC involves a cycling weather pattern that develops in October and November of each year; no pattern is the same from year to year. Around mid November, the LRC begins to repeat, meaning we start to see a similar weather pattern in mid November that we saw in early October. This means that the cycling pattern has begun, and it will continue to cycle on a 40-60 day interval for the next ~10 months before it dissipates over the following summer. This season's cycle is roughly 57 days, which is why we have highlighted December 7th as the connection date for this October 11 system.

The GFS model has this storm system actually becoming two storm systems, though it is the northern-most one that drops snow across the Plains. This model puts down snow from Montana to Wisconsin, also allotting some snow to the Dakotas, Minnesota and Canada. With the presence of an Arctic front pushing south, I support this idea of the system taking a more zonal approach to its track when compared to the October 11th track. While model forecasts will continue to change until this storm system, I do think that more of the upper Plains and upper Midwest will experience the wintry side of this storm when compared to the portion of those affected in early/mid October.

The GFS model puts down totals in excess of one foot across North Dakota, much of Minnesota and a slight portion of Wisconsin. Lower amounts greet the other half of the Dakotas, the rest of Minnesota and the upper half of Wisconsin. This does look to be a rather substantial event, should current forecasts verify, with plowable snow extending across a wide majority of the far northern states.

Andrew

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2013112912/USA_PTYPE_sfc_177.gif

This link reminds me of the Chicago blizzard of 2011 setup. It dipped into Texas and shot NE.

Anonymous said...

i don't understand where you are getting your maps from. Obviously they suck. I looked at your second post and i saw someone asking you nicely to post about something and you responded very rudely. If i had a weather blog and someone commented and asked me if i could post about something i would, not be a jerk about it and not doing it. No one will come to your site if you are being rude. You are looking at the wrong storm and you obviously are blind to not see the storm rolling trough the plains and midwest and into the great lakes. Find a new place to get models. Thats why your forecasting is so bad because the place that you are getting your models from SUCKS!

Andrew said...

Anonymous at 3:19: Well, I'm sorry if you think my maps suck. I assure you they are very high quality, and if you prefer to believe otherwise, that's too bad. If you actually want to know where I get my maps from and say they suck because you don't know where they originate from, they come mainly from WeatherBell models.

I am also going to ask that you refrain from being so aggressive on this site. I maintain it with respect and authority, and I see neither being displayed with your comment. If you would like to have a conversation about my forecasting, I would be glad to have one, but this is not a conversation. Your comment is more obnoxious (and more contradictory if you say I should not be rude) than I would like to have a conversation.

Anonymous said...

Weatherbell eh? well, I certainly can give them credit, since Joe Bastardi has proven pretty accurate on many occasions, and I commend you on the painstaking efforts you must undergo to get all these neat models you have at yours, and our disposal, I like seeing how much they differ sometimes, and I do agree the the LRC should come into play at least somewhat, though because it's not being influenced by an arctic wave dropping south, since arctic air should already be entrenched throughout much of the nation during that time frame, it makes sense that a more zonal movement would be observed this time around.
By the way, it's Cody, and I'm still with you all the way, and I will always support this site, and many others do, including much of the media, so don't let a couple of low information bashers get you down man, by the way, happy belated Thanksgiving to you.

randyinchamplin said...

Andrew, you may want to incorporate the strong -EPO we have been seeing the last 30-60 days. Remember the classic fail with a winter forecast put out by ACCU a couple of years ago? Peeps would want to move out of Chicago? That winter seemed to be driven by the MJO cycle. This winter seems to be driven by the very strong -EPO so far. It would be interesting to read your views on how that would play out with LRC.

Anonymous said...

Thank you for sharing your expertise with us. Can you please offer any additional information on the status of the polar vortex? Does it still look like a split in two? TIA Dredgolf

Anonymous said...

Responding to the last anonymous. I have been following the weather all of my life. You don't have to say that we are low information bashers. I know the weather and I love following it. So please don't say that without knowing who we are.

Andrew said...

Should definitely be interesting to see just how much influence the LRC wields with this storm. Appreciate the kind words, happy belated Turkey day to you, too.

John TRI said...

I am near the southern tip of Florida and moved here to get away from the cold. I am growing mangoes,papayas, avocados, and soon dragon fruit. We have not had freezing weather here since January 2010 when the low temperature dropped to 31F. Keep that cold air to the north!

The sun spot activity is very low and this could mean a drastic cooling cycle may begin. If so, winter weather fans may be in for a treat, however agriculture could fail in the midwest and result in global famine.

Anonymous said...

It looks like prolonged cross polar flow is likely, and even with a weak South Central\ Southeast ridge that is going to develop, don't expect it to be very warm in the east, in fact the ridge over Alaska and the NE Pacific looks so overwhelmingly strong, that it will force cold air right through any ridges to bring chilly air just everywhere in the US, though the worst of the cold look to be over the northern half of the US, especially NW and far NE, and there look to be several decent opportunities for storms across the nation over the next few weeks, so don't let your guard down, I can say this, that -WPO and -EPO are going to influence some brutal cold snaps here in the US.