December 7-11 Potential Winter Storm

The potential is on the rise for a winter storm between the December 7 and 11 timeframe.

Ensemble forecasts place some stormy weather around Japan in time for the first day of December, as a major pattern shift in the Pacific gets underway.There is a known correlation that indicates storm systems or ridges of high pressure over East Asia can be reciprocated in the United States 6-10 days after the event's occurrence in East Asia. Thus, seeing the potential for a storm system in Japan on December 1st, it would be assumed that December 7th to the 11th is the timeframe for a potential winter storm in the United States.

Adding to this potential winter storm system's credibility is the Lezak Recurring Cycle. The Lezak Recurring Cycle, or LRC, is a tool developed by meteorologist Gary Lezak that, in essence, can enable forecasters to predict the overall weather pattern months in advance. The gist of the LRC involves a cycling weather pattern that develops in October and November of each year; no pattern is the same from year to year. Around mid November, the LRC begins to repeat, meaning we start to see a similar weather pattern in mid November that we saw in early October. This means that the cycling pattern has begun, and it will continue to cycle on a 40-60 day interval for the next ~10 months before it dissipates over the following summer. Now that we are in late November, we have already begun to enter the next cycle of the LRC. There was a storm system that moved through the Plains and Midwest from October 14th-15th, which brought precipitation to those regions. Now, roughly 57 days later (the approximate length of the LRC cycle this season), we are looking for this storm to come back around December 10-12. This places it just outside of the timeframe set forth by the East Asian correlation, but I have a feeling that the two ought to combine in this case to produce the winter storm chance.

Going strictly by the LRC, one would expect the Plains and Midwest to get this storm system again. But, if teleconnection forecasts verify at their current projections, it's possible the system goes further north than it did in mid-October, or gets caught in the subtropical jet stream and stays to the south. I personally prefer the upper Plains-upper Midwest track, but in this case, time will tell.

Andrew