Sunday, December 29, 2013

ECMWF Ensemble Control Floods Midwest with Historic Cold

The long range ECMWF Ensemble Control model has put out a forecast that sends record-breaking cold deep into the Midwest and Ohio Valley, sending temperatures into a free-fall below -20 degrees.

The ECMWF Ensemble Control is a member of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), which is comprised of 52 separate ECMWF model runs, each of which has been changed a little one way or another to create a big ensemble that is currently considered the most prestigious in the world. One of those 52 members is the ensemble Control, which is called a control member because it has not been  deliberately changed like the other ensemble members.

The pattern that will be setting up in 10 days (close to the forecasted image above, which is valid for next Wednesday) does look rather supportive of a cold weather pattern in the United States. I have yet to dig deeper into just how favorable the pattern will be, and I plan to do so sometime on New Years Eve or New Years Day. Until then, just keep in mind that this cold pattern is here to stay. Maybe not as intense as what is shown above, but it will be cold.



Anonymous said...

could you please give us an update on the jan 2-6 storm
is it still coming on top of this cold

Anonymous said...

It was warm! I enjoyed warm for 5 days & I want it back!
Think warm & it will happen!
Oh..& I do not want to hear anything that entails the 4 letter word regarding Jan 2-6th!
There I put in my order so I'm thinking Andrew you will soon post on my early springs arrival!! I've seen spring in January before! hasn't been that long ago!!
Think spring everyone!

Bjenks said...

So if this cold that is being advertised does drop into the lower Ohio Valley does that wipe out the panhandle hook storm for mid month. Just don't see a storm of that magnitude crashing through the cold air. Seems if the cold air is in place the storm would track further to the south. Any thoughts on that.

Shawn said...

That is a beautiful sight especially for us winter lovers! :)