Sunday, February 2, 2014

February 4-6 Major Snowstorm

There will be a major snowstorm over the February 4-6 time period, which has the potential to drop up to a foot of snow.

The GFS model, whose 87 hour snow projection is shown above, indicates we will see heavy snowfall in the 8-12" range across easterk Kansas, southeast Nebraska, northern Missouri and into Iowa. Amounts then taper off into the 3-6" range in Illinois, before ramping back up in the Northeast, where amounts over 12 inches are possible. The GFS model has been consistent with this storm thus far, and with the storm only a couple of days away, it looks like this is the track that is more likely to work out. The snow amounts have moved north of the far south storm tracks that we saw days earlier, and this north shift was expected, per earlier posts I put out.

The NAM model is much more enthusiastic with snowfall, laying down 6 to 10 inches of snow in Kansas, Nebraska and much of Missouri before pounding the Lower Great Lakes region with over 12 inches of snow. Northern Indiana appears to be heading for 20 inches of snow if this model is to be believed! However, the NAM model had previously been showing a far northwest solution, so additional nudges south may be anticipated. I do expect snowfall amounts will be lowered in future forecasts, as the NAM model is notorious for over-estimating snowfall. The stripe of snowfall extending from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic is not associated with this storm.

Because the storm system has not come ashore yet, slight changes in storm track and snowfall amounts can be anticipated. We should begin to see a solid model consensus tomorrow or tomorrow evening, when the system comes onshore and the balloon network can get fresh data from the storm.

Andrew

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Are you more with the GFS model or the NAM model? Because in one, central ohio gets 7 inches and in the other, central ohio gets none. Could you also please tell me an estimated snowfall for central ohio?

Andrew said...

As I said in my post, I favor the GFS model forecast at the moment.

Shannon Baird said...

What's the prediction for battle creek mi

Anonymous said...

Hey..this one is just a bad as the other I posted on!
Do you think Iowa will get this snow amount? (I'm looking at the Marshalltown Iowa area....we have a business there (yes we do snow removal...yes I know & I prey for no snow) (we do all kinds of business let me tell ya) anyway, its hard to get a good forecast here on our local news stations, so I am grateful for you Andrew!
We do not need snow in order to survive that is why I prey we get nothing! Ok, I look forward to any updates from you Mr. Andrew!
bree

Anonymous said...

Andrew,

Are you still favoring the GFS model or is it looking like the NAM model is filling the role?