February 4-6 Major Snowstorm

There will be a major snowstorm over the February 4-6 time period, which has the potential to drop up to a foot of snow.

The GFS model, whose 87 hour snow projection is shown above, indicates we will see heavy snowfall in the 8-12" range across easterk Kansas, southeast Nebraska, northern Missouri and into Iowa. Amounts then taper off into the 3-6" range in Illinois, before ramping back up in the Northeast, where amounts over 12 inches are possible. The GFS model has been consistent with this storm thus far, and with the storm only a couple of days away, it looks like this is the track that is more likely to work out. The snow amounts have moved north of the far south storm tracks that we saw days earlier, and this north shift was expected, per earlier posts I put out.

The NAM model is much more enthusiastic with snowfall, laying down 6 to 10 inches of snow in Kansas, Nebraska and much of Missouri before pounding the Lower Great Lakes region with over 12 inches of snow. Northern Indiana appears to be heading for 20 inches of snow if this model is to be believed! However, the NAM model had previously been showing a far northwest solution, so additional nudges south may be anticipated. I do expect snowfall amounts will be lowered in future forecasts, as the NAM model is notorious for over-estimating snowfall. The stripe of snowfall extending from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic is not associated with this storm.

Because the storm system has not come ashore yet, slight changes in storm track and snowfall amounts can be anticipated. We should begin to see a solid model consensus tomorrow or tomorrow evening, when the system comes onshore and the balloon network can get fresh data from the storm.

Andrew