Current sea surface temperature anomalies are supportive of the dreaded Southeast Ridge making an appearance next winter.
The image above shows sea surface temperature anomalies from July 11, 2014 to July 18 2014, projected across North America. In this image, we want to focus on the anomalies around the Southeast United States and up through the East Coast.
We see a general presence of slightly to well above normal sea surface temperature anomalies when examining the waters to the west and east of Florida. In those regions, we can observe widespread anomalies over one degree K above normal. Looking up along the East Coast, we see these warmer than normal anomalies still present, though not as intense as those near Florida and the Bahamas.
While this feature may not be as significant when compared to those features in the Pacific, it does hold substantial weight when analyzing the expected climate of the United States this winter. Depending on a multitude of conditions in the atmosphere, there is the potential for a semi-permanent ridge of high pressure to form in the Southeastern United States during the cold season. The durability and strength of this ridge varies on a case-by-case basis, but its presence can never be overlooked when it appears. The ridge allows the storm track to be deflected northward, sometimes bringing winter storms into the Plains if the ridge is strong, and other times into the Midwest and Ohio Valley if the ridge is weaker. What is clear, however, is that this phenomenon spells bad news for winter weather fans residing along the East Coast. This ridge almost always delivers warm, quiet, snow-less weather to those in the East. Unfortunately, if the latter description sounds like you, the chances of these conditions arising this winter have been raised.
The winter weather fans in the East Coast may not want to hear this news, but those in the Plains and Midwest should thoroughly enjoy this latest news, even if it may just be a flash in the pan. We'll have to see how the El Nino situation evolves this fall, hence the flash in the pan reference.
Andrew
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| ESRL |
We see a general presence of slightly to well above normal sea surface temperature anomalies when examining the waters to the west and east of Florida. In those regions, we can observe widespread anomalies over one degree K above normal. Looking up along the East Coast, we see these warmer than normal anomalies still present, though not as intense as those near Florida and the Bahamas.
While this feature may not be as significant when compared to those features in the Pacific, it does hold substantial weight when analyzing the expected climate of the United States this winter. Depending on a multitude of conditions in the atmosphere, there is the potential for a semi-permanent ridge of high pressure to form in the Southeastern United States during the cold season. The durability and strength of this ridge varies on a case-by-case basis, but its presence can never be overlooked when it appears. The ridge allows the storm track to be deflected northward, sometimes bringing winter storms into the Plains if the ridge is strong, and other times into the Midwest and Ohio Valley if the ridge is weaker. What is clear, however, is that this phenomenon spells bad news for winter weather fans residing along the East Coast. This ridge almost always delivers warm, quiet, snow-less weather to those in the East. Unfortunately, if the latter description sounds like you, the chances of these conditions arising this winter have been raised.
The winter weather fans in the East Coast may not want to hear this news, but those in the Plains and Midwest should thoroughly enjoy this latest news, even if it may just be a flash in the pan. We'll have to see how the El Nino situation evolves this fall, hence the flash in the pan reference.
Andrew
11 comments:
Awesome!
Hi Andrew. I'm n the Midwest and I hope we get clobbered again with snow like last winter. Keep up the good work. :)
Andrew, I appreciate the different scenarios you present, however, each post seems to contradict the previous post and your thoughts on the coming winter seems to almost mirror that of the currently posted computer model's forecast. As a forecaster you must have a "gut-feeling" of what the winter will feature, regardless of the daily changes of the models, based on your knowledge of the weather and its patterns. The question is, what does the Andrew see happening despite the quirkiness of forecast computer models.
Could it still be weak enough to keep things colder around Youngstown, Ohio?
wouldn't a west coast ridge make a SE ridge insignificant?
Face it ... There is a chance you easterners will get a mild winter with low snow totals ... Don't shoot the messenger just deal with it and move on ... Didn't you get your fill last winter ??? Hahaha
All I can say is here at zip code 28659.....We "have"....had a East Coast Ridge for the last 4 years! No snow, warm dry, and "very" boring winters. Finally, last winter it finally caved in during the last few days of Feb and March and we got 30+ inchs of snow in just a few short weeks.
So a east Coast Ridge is the last thing I want to hear!!!!
I would love to get snow this year, we've been missed to the east, to the west and to the south for the past 3 years. Enough of the snow bubble. Let there be 1 or 2 good nor'easters that actually hit my area this winter.
No! ( stomping foot)
After looking at other folks "DATA" and looking back at the total disaster of the much-hyped "NON"-El-Nino event 3 years ago that everyone missed except the folks over at NOAA, who finally got it right........I still think the odds are very much in-favor of El-Nino event....
if a southeast ridge does form wouldn't the west coast ridge and a possible blocking over Greenland cause the southeast ridge to not have much of an effect for at least the northern mid atlantic?
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