Saturday, September 6, 2014

September 10th Potentially Strong Severe Weather Event

September 10th is being monitored for the emergence of a strong severe weather event.

SPC
Click to enlarge
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an area from Chicago to western New York for potential severe weather on Wednesday, September 10th. The outlined region includes states such as Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York.

Instant Weather Maps
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On the morning of September 10th, a surface low is expected to track northeast into the Upper Midwest, rapidly strengthening as it does so. This sort of rapid cyclogenesis was discussed by the SPC in their outlook for this day's severe weather, and it does appear to be a valid concern. The wind field around this surface low is expected to tighten and intensify, as the close proximity of isobars on the map above shows. With cooperative surface winds, severe storms become quite a bit more likely (assuming all other components for severe weather are in place, of course).

Instant Weather Maps
Click to enlarge
Another item mentioned in the SPC outlook was the presence of a moisture-rich environment in the outlined area. A look at precipitable water values confirms this idea. Precipitable water values are determined by theoretically taking a single column of air and collecting all the water from it. For instance, PWAT values of 1" suggest if you were to compress that column of air and squeeze all the water out of it, you would see 1" of water. Typically, values above 1.5" tend to be humid and uncomfortable for many, while values above 2" can feel 'soupy'. All of the moisture projected to be in the air on September 10th, per the image above, should allow for any strong storms to possess the potential for torrential rainfall, with flash flooding a possibility.

Additional updates will be posted in the near future.

Andrew

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

As long it isn't snow!

Anonymous said...

I like this setup as maybe a localized tornado/severe event. I think the heavy rain threat is definitely what needs the most attention though. We've got a strong low that's going to generate a ton of upward motion in an atmosphere that's almost entirely saturated - this thing's taking in moisture directly from the tropical disturbance in the Pacific.

Christopher Ebie said...

Here we go. I am right in the middle of that storm area. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.