Sunday, October 12, 2014

Europe 2014-2015 Winter Forecast

*Confidence in this forecast is low. Use with caution.

The Weather Centre
The expectation for this winter is that we will see substantial blocking high pressure stationed over Greenland, known to many weather enthusiasts as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). When the NAO is positive, strong low pressure occupies the area around Greenland, while ridging high pressure covers the land mass in a negative NAO. When the jet stream shoots north due to the ridging over Greenland in a negative NAO, it then plummets south as it approaches Europe. This introduces an area of colder-than-normal temperatures over northern and western Europe. Depending on the strength of this negative NAO, temperatures may end up warmer than normal in southeastern Europe, though it is not marked on this map.

As for precipitation, slightly below normal anomalies might be expected in northwestern Europe, before a gradual trend to normal, or even slightly above normal anomalies evolves towards Italy and nations to the east.

Due to the low confidence in this forecast, the description here certainly isn't as impressive as it could be. Any additional questions concerning Europe may be asked below.


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