Sunday, January 25, 2015

January 28 - February 1 Potential Winter Storm

We're watching for a potential winter storm in a January 28th through February 1st timeframe.

Tropical Tidbits
Click Images to enlarge
The above graphic shows mean sea level pressure (MSLP) contours superimposed on 500mb geopotential height values (colored shadings), valid from last Thursday morning. Last Thursday, we saw a positively-tilted trough forcing a rather strong low pressure system to form just east of Japan, dipping below the 1000 millibar mark on this image. When we apply the Typhoon Rule, which states weather phenomenon occurring in Japan is reciprocated in the US 6-10 days later, we come out with a potential winter storm in the January 28 - February 1 timeframe.

Instant Weather Maps
Initially, the ECMWF takes this system down through the Midwest and Ohio Valley, as the above image shows on the evening of January 29th. We see a minimum sea level pressure value of about 1008 millibars, if not a bit below that. This won't be a significant storm, per current forecasts, but could drop some wintry precipitation across the aforementioned regions.

Instant Weather Maps
By the evening of January 30th, the ECMWF model sees this storm transferring offshore the Mid-Atlantic, strengthening at an appreciable pace to a minimum sea level pressure value of ~997 millibars. This would likely produce accumulating snowfall for parts of the Northeast, as the GFS model is also alluding to, but again, nothing incredibly significant.

To summarize:

- A winter storm may affect the US between January 28th and February 1st.
- This storm may affect the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast the most, if at all, given the relatively-weak strength of this storm.



Anonymous said...

So.....a post about a "not too significant storm" a week or so out...and no post regarding a potentially historic storm 24-36 hrs away. Very strange blog.

Anonymous said...

This storm could easily produce 2ft of snow for the NE.

Andrew said...

Please refer to this blog's Facebook page and twitter account for information on the storm, as that is where short-term information on storms is posted.

Andrew said...

Anonymous at 2:17: This is for a potential storm after the upcoming blizzard.

Anonymous said...

I meant the short term storm this Monday in my last post.

Anonymous said...

got it.

Anonymous said...

I knew you would post about this potential. This morning's GEM run really caught my eye for the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe of next weekend and into the week after. What really caught my eye was the snow fall. It laid out 24-28" across portions of Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. Since the models have the snow in 10:1 ratio and its going to be cold enough to support 13:1 - 15:1 ratios, those amounts could of been bumped up in the 26-32" range. The downfall is that is the only run that has had anything eye catching so far. So I do see the potential but the potential is very low so very good post alerting people of the potential. Don't listen to the people that are complaining about you posting about not a significant storm. You are simply alerting people about the potential for any snow possible. Once again, good post and keep up the good work.

Oh and one more thing. I was very excited to see you post about it because whenever you post something about a winter storm potential, it usually ends up happening, strong or not. I also hope the runs in the next few days start showing greater potential for this storm possibility.