Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Multi-Day Severe Weather Threat for Midwest, Ohio Valley

A multi-day severe weather event will unfold Wednesday and Thursday across the Midwest and Ohio Valley, respectively.

Tropical Tidbits (click to enlarge)
Thunderstorm development is expected over southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, and eastern Nebraska by Wednesday evening, with the most intense convection being simulated over northwest Iowa. The image above shows forecasted radar reflectivity over the Midwest area at 7PM Wednesday. In other words, this is what one forecast model thinks the radars will see unfolding at 7PM Wednesday. If it does verify, this could be a rather intense severe weather event for anyone caught in the line of fire of a particularly nasty line segment of storms, such as the one shows in northwest Iowa.

The primary threats here will be damaging winds and hail; the linear shape of these storms should cut down on the tornado threat.

Tropical Tidbits
By Thursday afternoon, thunderstorm development is renewed in Indiana, Michigan, Kentucky, and Ohio. These cells should be more individualized, raising the hail and tornado threats, but still keeping the tornado threat at a rather low level.



randyinchamplin said...

Andrew thanks for your post, its nice to see you active again. As storms break out here in MN I would be setting up just to the SE of Mankato MN if I were chasing. Like the map you posted above there seems to be a discrete cell showing up around that area on other models as well. While SB and ML cape are only around a 1000 or so, the lower level shear is quite impressive. On the other hand 0-6km shear is only progged to be around 35 knots or so. While that's not impressive it could just enough to spin something up. It will be interesting to see how this sets up. On another note the 03/31 12z runs of the Gem and the Euro are hinting at a snow event around April 7th for the Minnesota area.

Anonymous said...

Why have you cut down on your updates so much? You only do this once a week now. Use to look at this daily, but now there virtually no point if there's no updates.

Anonymous said...

Hi Andrew. Care to discuss potential severe weather that may impact plains and Midwest during mid week April 6th-9th? Would be greatful with your take on setups! Thanks.