Coldest Weather Of The Season On The Way

The Earth Systems Research Laboratory (ESRL) and the National Centers For Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are agreeing on a strong negative EPO going into the first week of October, something that could have major implications on temperatures.

The East Pacific oscillation, or EPO, has a positive and negative phase. In the positive phase, a stormy pattern in the West and warmth in the East is a common sight. However, these two agencies are both predicting a very negative pattern. This would lead to an enhanced potential for cold air to work its way into the East, while high pressure sets up across the West.

The Arctic Oscillation, another major factor in bringing cold air to the States, looks to be dropping negative going into the first week of October. This negative EPO, combined with the negative AO looks to be a perfect storm for some cold weather.

These two indices look to produce a very chilly first week of October for the East. I would not be surprised to see cities like Chicago, Milwaukee, or possibly Indianapolis reaching into the 30's, possibly getting below freezing at times.

You heard it here first at The Weather Centre!

Andrew

Minnesota Low Temps Typical of October

Observed low temperatures from last night and tonight's forecasted lows are actually typical of October in Minnesota.

Statistics show that the average low temperature in September is 46.6 degrees (F) for the state of Minnesota. However, yesterday's actual lows provided by LawrencevilleWeather.com show that some locations reached as low as 29 degrees in the far northern part of the state. This beats the average low temperature of 35 degrees (F) in October across the state.

So? Why should you care? In weather, many times forecasters can use the persistence method of forecasting to their advantage. For example, if it was unusually warm for a couple of days, a forecaster may use the persistence method and say that it will remain warm. If it has been very rainy the last several hours and the skies look dark, the forecaster may say it will continue raining.

If we use the persistence method here, averaged out over a long period of time, it is possible that this indicates that the Northern US may be cooler than normal for the rest of fall. Now, this method has a lot of caveats and is not really used now that we have computer models. However, the possibility is there that this is an indication from Mother Nature on what is to come as far as the rest of Fall goes.

Andrew

Widespread Freeze Likely Tonight in Midwest, Plains

Light blue: Freeze Warning
Dark Blue: Frost Advisory

Widespread frosting and freezes are likely across much of the Midwest and Plains tonight, as the coldest air of the season moves into the country. Frost advisories stretch as far south as Springfield, Illinois, and a freeze warning is on the border with Canada, making this event span hundreds of miles.

Actions must be taken now to save plants and other vegetation in harms way of this first autumnal frost/freeze. Here are some tips to help your plants survive this night.

-Cover your plants with some cloth or an other covering. If the frost hits, the covering will take the brunt of the frozen dew, keeping the plant dry. NOTE: I have seen someone in my neighborhood put a styrofoam container over their plants with a brick on top. It seems to have worked well.

-If you absolutely adore your plants and feel like it's too early to see them off, you may even go so far as to put hand warmers around the plant in addition to covering them up. It isn't a bad idea if you want your plants to receive as little harm as possible.

Andrew

Fall is Here!- Average Date of Leaf Color Change