Hurricane Irene 9:30 AM Update (8/22): Irene Strengthens, eyes Carolinas to New York

This is the 9:30 AM CDT Update on Hurricane Irene.
Good morning everyone, this is the 9:30 AM briefing on Hurricane Irene. Irene is currently a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph/70 knots. Irene made landfall in Puerto Rico earlier today and is now moving westward. She may go over the Hispaniola area, which could diminish Irene. Let's study the tracks.

Here is the track from the National Hurricane Center. We see Irene projected to make a NW turn in coming days. Irene may scrape the Hispaniola area, and if she does, big things could happen. Hispaniola is known to be a tropical cyclone devastator, if not killer. If Irene goes just over the northern area, she may not be affected as much as she would going directly over the region. That would let Irene freely strengthen as rapidly as she pleases, which would be deadly. And at this stage, it will be making a US landfall.

Here is a consensus of models forecasting for Irene. The black line is the NHC's forecast. While it may seem that the trend is to the east, it is actually roughly in the middle as a few models are a tad west than the NHC. Florida will likely be scraped by Irene if not hit, but impacts will be felt in that area. We do project Irene to make landfall in the Georgia/Carolinas area. After that, there is potential for Irene to shoot north and deluge the New York area with 9+ inches of rain. However, it is still a far ways out, but that is what is on the table right now.

This is the ECMWF model. It displays a monster storm slamming into an area approximately in the Carolinas area. This could be a major hurricane, but with no wind speeds available, we will have to settle with the lowest pressures. This will likely be a category 2 or higher when it makes landfall.

Here is the GFS mean sea level pressure forecast for 1 pm CDT on August 27. It does definitely outline a major hurricane to strike the border of South Carolina and North Carolina. This scenario does worry me, as these states may not be as prepared for a hurricane as Florida is, much less a major hurricane. Rainfall and wind will be big factors in this storm, and we have wind gusts here below.

Wind gusts go as high as 90 knots on this chart just as the storm is making landfall.
I cannot emphasize how dangerous this storm MAY be. And that's the whole reason why it is dangerous. The models and us forecasters don't have an especially good handle on this storm, so it could shift large distances and strengths in only a few hours. With each run that becomes a lesser possibility, but there's always that chance.

TS Irene Evening Video Briefing (August 21)

TS Irene 6:00 PM 8/21 Update: ECMWF and GFS go all out on Southeast Coast

This is the 6:00 PM update for Tropical Storm Irene.
It's been quite a wild day for the computer models. At this stage, as Irene has become a tropical storm, that means some sense has been knocked into present and future model forecasts. At this point, it appears the entire Southeast Coast is at risk for hurricane conditions in the next 5 days.

Here is the ECMWF ensemble as of the 12z run from today. It appears that the ECMWF ensembles brush the East Coast. It's still too far out to see if Irene makes landfall in the Carolinas or not, but the likelihood of that is high.

Here is the real ECMWF model run. The ECMWF goes to devastating lengths to impact the East Coast (Georgia, Carolinas). This outlines a very deadly situation should no one heed these warnings. It does appear that the ECMWF is a front runner in model reliability. While it is a far ways out, the ECMWF is a very trusted model, which means you should be on the lookout if you live in the states previously mentioned.

The GFS makes landfall with Irene a bit south of the ECMWF but still dangerously strong. Pressures appear to be lower in this run than in previous runs, indicating a stronger system.
We will have more on this situation in coming days.

Tropical Storm Irene Forms, Florida and Georgia on the chopping block

Tropical Storm Irene has formed as of last night in the Caribbean area. While I was conferring with a few meteorologists, it became apparent that Irene was shifting more north, thus her track would as well. It appears her center had relocated slightly north.

The National hurricane Center is opting for a Florida landfall, while most models are either doing the same thing or going east of the NHC's track. That said, areas west of the state of Mississippi may have an incremental chance of being hit by this storm. I cannot guarantee that, but latest model guidance and my gut feeling indicate that is what should be laid down.

The ECMWF model takes Irene and slams her into Georgia. Now, Georgia has not had a major hurricane in a large number of years. It is possible their hurricane preparation tactics may not be implemented as skillfully as they would be with Florida residents due to lack of experience with hurricanes. I would advise residents of Georgia to have evacuation plans ready, or, if you cannot leave for some reason, stock 2 weeks of food, water and batteries for safety in a sturdy building on higher floors. The ECMWF, along with several other models, has formed a consensus which we will show you in a moment.

The GFS model takes Irene to a stronger level than the ECMWF, but appears to hit Florida's coastline, ride that north and then hit Georgia at the strength shown above. This could be even more devastating than what the ECMWF shows, but we are still 5 days from impact and these models will change.

Here is the experimental FIM model developed by the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL). The plot mapped above is surface winds about 5 days away from now. We can see the wind strength around 65 knots. While that may seem like a lot, it is only a Category 1- Category 2 hurricane (wind may fluctuate). However, even that strength can make a big impact on any state, even one that is prepared for hurricanes.

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