Tropical Storm Irene Forms, Florida and Georgia on the chopping block

Tropical Storm Irene has formed as of last night in the Caribbean area. While I was conferring with a few meteorologists, it became apparent that Irene was shifting more north, thus her track would as well. It appears her center had relocated slightly north.

The National hurricane Center is opting for a Florida landfall, while most models are either doing the same thing or going east of the NHC's track. That said, areas west of the state of Mississippi may have an incremental chance of being hit by this storm. I cannot guarantee that, but latest model guidance and my gut feeling indicate that is what should be laid down.

The ECMWF model takes Irene and slams her into Georgia. Now, Georgia has not had a major hurricane in a large number of years. It is possible their hurricane preparation tactics may not be implemented as skillfully as they would be with Florida residents due to lack of experience with hurricanes. I would advise residents of Georgia to have evacuation plans ready, or, if you cannot leave for some reason, stock 2 weeks of food, water and batteries for safety in a sturdy building on higher floors. The ECMWF, along with several other models, has formed a consensus which we will show you in a moment.

The GFS model takes Irene to a stronger level than the ECMWF, but appears to hit Florida's coastline, ride that north and then hit Georgia at the strength shown above. This could be even more devastating than what the ECMWF shows, but we are still 5 days from impact and these models will change.

Here is the experimental FIM model developed by the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL). The plot mapped above is surface winds about 5 days away from now. We can see the wind strength around 65 knots. While that may seem like a lot, it is only a Category 1- Category 2 hurricane (wind may fluctuate). However, even that strength can make a big impact on any state, even one that is prepared for hurricanes.

Exclusive Hurricane Threat Level Monitor (August 20, Early Afternoon)

This is the Weather Centre's Exclusive Hurricane Threat Level Monitor for the potential hurricane that could strike the Florida area.

This map is subject to change.

GFS Looks to Devastate Florida with Hurricane Landfall from Invest 97L (Featuring Hurricane Survival Tips)

The GFS Model is projecting Invest 97L, currently on the Caribbean's doorstep, to strengthen rapidly into a hurricane, which is then forecasted to strike Florida with potentially devastating effects.
The GFS has been predicting that this storm would strike Florida for over 4 days now. That's a lot of consistency. Needless to say, Florida is very much on the chopping block, if you will.
At this time, it is highly advised that, if you live in Florida, Georgia, Alabama, you should begin preparations for a potentially life-threatening hurricane. If possible, you are advised to leave the state.
If you cannot leave the state, follow the forthcoming steps:

1. Stock up at least 2 weeks of food, water and batteries in this specific case. In some situations, it is hard for rescue personnel to rescue people as there may be hazards that prevent them from doing so.

2. Move possessions to upper levels. Storm surge is definitely a possibility in this situation, even a likelihood. Move all necessary possessions to higher levels, as some storm surges (high water) can come up over 20 feet- a real life-threatening situation.

3. In the rare incident you are trapped as a structure has fallen on top of you, you may want to bring a bright colored blanket or something to notify authorities you are trapped and need help.

4. Stock matches. If you are soaked wet, even in Florida's heat, hypothermia is always an issue. Bring a heat item that is reliable.

ECMWF Ensembles moving west with Invest 97L

This system, Invest 97L, is becoming more and more likely to develop. With the 12z run of the ECMWF, we have discovered that the ECMWF (Euro) ensembles are more westerly than the actual ECMWF. At the same time, they are slightly weaker. Bear in mind that the ECMWF was the main winner in dealing with tropical storm Emily. Without further ado, here is the ECMWF ensemble as far out as I could run it.

While this looks weak, it is likely that the Gulf of Mexico will provide rapid intensification, as a lot of energy appears to be in that area. If the ECMWF ensembles keep this system to the west, it is possible that states like Louisiana, Texas would have a better chance of getting hit. This is nearly 200 hours out, so take this with a fairly large grain of salt. We will update you as needed.

Gulf of Mexico could have a hurricane on its hands soon...

That's right, folks. For the first time this year, there is mounting real concern of a hurricane or tropical cyclone striking the Gulf of mexico. At this point, the entire Gulf of Mexico (GOM) has an equal chance of getting hit, but Florida is being eyed more closely due to somewhat recent runs. But the latest GFS has a hurricane brutally striking Texas. See below for more information.

This image is of the DGEX model on the left and GFS model on the right. The DGEX is not considered one of the better models, so bear that in mind. Even so, the DGEX has a hurricane scrape up the Florida coast and probably eventually strike the Florida Panhandle/North Florida region. On the right we have the GFS model. It is farther west and possibly somewhat higher pressures (a sign of a weaker system). Luckily, we can look farther past the DGEX model and see where the GFS makes landfall.

This is for August 30 in the late evening/early morning hours. We see the GFS goes all out on Texas with a large and dangerous system striking that area. Both of these models pose a danger to life and property. All people on the Gulf coast should begin monitoring this system closely. You can follow all current and previous discussions on this storm by clicking on the link below named 'Invest 97L'.

Long Range Tropical Forecast Discussion (August 25-28)- Issued August 18

This is a Long Range Forecast Discussion, issued on August 18, for a tropical cyclone concern. The areas affected are Florida, and the Southeast portion of the East Coast.
The following images are from the GFS.

Hour 174

This is Hour 174 from the latest GFS model. You can see what appears to be a tropical cyclone just off the tip of Florida. Pressures appear to be very low and precipitation appears to be high. As it is just coming into the picture, there's not much else we can point out yet.

Hour 192

At hour 192, this system has come into the picture with a potential landfall in Southern Florida. Precipitation is absolutely nuts, and it looks like flash flooding is certainly on the table for this situation, no question about it. At this point, it would be good measure to indicate that this cyclone is likely a hurricane at this point, thus a US Landfall with damage could happen.

Hour 216

Pressures may have actually deepened while it is hitting Florida. Major cities like Orlando and Miami are certainly at risk with this may-be hurricane. Precipitation has completely enclosed the apparent center of circulation, ensuring that this system will not end up like the infamous Tropical Storm Emily, where her center of circulation was always exposed and ahead of the main convection.

Hour 240

Finally, at hour 240, the tropical system has exited Florida and made its way into the Georgia region. This certainly could be a stubborn system, as the system may be this strong even while completely on land- a tropical cyclone killer.
We will closely watch this situation as it could become life-threatening. We will brief you again this afternoon and tomorrow.