Forecast Discussion: April 9, 2012

Hotspot of the day: South Plains
A moderate risk of severe weather was issued for the Southern Plains today, making it worthy of today's hotspot. It looks like a storm system will slide east, with a stationary front out ahead of the system and a trough in tow. Expect the storms to fire along the front and what may be the equivalent of a dry line, based on the positioning of these risk areas. The main risk is for hail and damaging winds, while a tornado threat is also somewhat elevated.

Northeast
A massive storm system will drop rain and snow today in the Northeast, making for slick conditions across the region. No severe weather is expected.

Ohio Valley
Some isolated showers and storms are possible today. A few could be on the strong side.

West Coast
The west coast may get in on some rain as a storm system rubs against the coast, which may drop some heavy rains.

Triple Threat of Severe Weather this Weekend

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined 3 areas of severe weather for Thursday, Friday and Saturday of this upcoming week and weekend. More interesting is the fact that these areas are overlapping in the situation, meaning we could have severe storms rolling over the same areas again and again.

This will basically be the set up for the cold front. It will sit in west Texas and the panhandle of Oklahoma. As we progress through the severe weather days, the warm front will drift north, increasing the length of the cold front, which at this point will become almost stationary.
Seeing as jet stream winds will be screaming along at 100 knots+, combined with substantial moisture differences and mid level shearing, this environment may be very ripe for tornadoes.

-Andrew

Potential Shelf Cloud-Like Formation

I captured these images of what appears to be of a shelf cloud-like formation.
I am not saying it is a shelf cloud, but the formation is very intriguing.

Regional Severe Weather Outbreak Possible for April 14

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a 'Day 7' risk for severe weather in Oklahoma and Kansas. Now, before we start, a Day 7 outline is extremely rare. I cannot remember the last time I actually saw a Day 7 outline.

Frontal Positions for Saturday

On Saturday, a warm front looks to be positioned in an arching pattern from Kansas into Minnesota. This will bring up warm, humid air into the region. Again, we see a dry line in western Texas and a cold front soon behind. Judging by moisture transports in the lower levels of the atmosphere and hodograph forecasts, this could be a tornadic situation, especially how the isobars are tightly positioned together in the warm sector (area under the warm front).

-Andrew

Regional Severe Weather Outbreak Possible on April 12

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a severe weather risk for 'Day 5', this upcoming Thursday. When the SPC outlines areas this far in advance, it usually means they are expecting something 'big' to happen. Don't hold me to it, however, because forecasts are very much due to change.

Frontal positions for Thursday

A storm system looks to be ejecting into the Northern Plains with a warm front stretched down south into Texas. Those open half circles to the left of the warm front indicate the presence of a dry line, where severe thunderstorms are traditionally formed along a dew point difference, which is the dry line. Now, the dry line is meaningless until the cold front arrives and forces warm air to rise and produce thunderstorms.
Given the tight wind field along the warm front, and hodograph observations from the 6z GFS for this timeframe, this event is likely going to contain some intense supercells with some potential tornadic action.

-Andrew