August 1: AMBER ALERT- West Tennessee

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
AMBER ALERT MESSAGE
TBI NASHVILLE TN
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
916 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2011

...OFFICIAL AMBER ALERT...

THIS IS A CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY RECEIVED BY THE
TENNESSEE BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION



A WEST TENNESSEE AMBER ALERT IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE OBION
COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT FOR THREE YEAR OLD JILLEEANN CALDERON,
WHITE, FEMALE, 36 INCHES TALL, 30 POUNDS WITH BROWN HAIR, BROWN
EYES, AND LIGHT SKINNED. ALSO KIDNAPPED WAS FOUR YEAR OLD JAMES
BROWN, WHITE, MALE, 36 INCHES TALL AND 35 POUNDS, WITH BROWN HAIR AND
EYES. JAMES HAS MEDIUM BROWN SKIN. THE CHILDREN WERE KIDNAPPED BY
THE BOYFRIEND OF THEIR MOTHER, 51 YEAR OLD TERRY NICHOLS, WHITE
MALE, 5 FEET, 9 INCHES TALL, 230 POUNDS, BROWN EYES AND GRAY HAIR.
THEY MAY BE TRAVELLING IN A 2001 WHITE DODGE CARAVAN WITH TENNESSEE
LICENSE PLATE 2...8...6...WPL. NICHOLS IS WANTED FOR ESPECIALLY
AGGRAVATED KIDNAPPING AND IS KNOWN TO CARRY WEAPONS. IF YOU HAVE ANY
INFORMATION ABOUT THE LOCATION OF THE CHILDREN OR TERRY NICHOLS
PLEASE CALL THE OBION COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT AT 731...885...5832
OR THE T...B...I AT 1...800...T...B...I...FIND.

August 1: Tropical Storm Emily Forms, Florida In Target Zone

Tropical Storm Emily has formed in the Caribbean as expected. Tropical Storm Warnings have been hoisted for many Caribbean islands, including Haiti and surrounding regions.
We at The Weather Centre believe Emily is a very real threat to Florida and areas west. We believe this because, now that Emily has formed inside the Caribbean region, it becomes unlikely that the storm will take a sharp turn to the east and fire out to the Atlantic. Because the above image is a likely output, we advise all residents in the state of Florida and states to the west to monitor this situation.

Models from this evening's 0z run are definitely taking a westward turn from the last several runs. There remains a potential for the storm to actually miss Florida and go out to sea as depicted in the beige dashed line, but that particular model is not considered a trust-worthy model, so we will not mind that.

August 1: Potential Hurricane Threat (Florida)

We at The Weather Centre are concerned with the system currently in the Atlantic just a bit east of the Caribbean Islands. After checking the GFS model run on a new site we recently discovered, we are now concerned with the possibility of a tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane landfall in Florida.

On the top we see the track of the storm as per the 6z run of the GFS. For those confused by all the colors, just look at the track itself. We see how the GFS unfortunately prints out a possible Florida landfall.
At the bottom we see the 925 mb wind swath. What this depicts is projected wind speeds just above the surface. We see florida could get in on a potential maximum of 79 knot wind speeds. That equals about 92 MPH, or a Category 1 hurricane.
We will closely monitor this situation.

August 1 Severe Weather Discussion

Discussion... Tornado threat will be unusually elevated in North Dakota into Minnesota. Surface Heating, combined with increasing atmospheric forcing will provide the beginning of strong to potentially intense thunderstorms over the areas mentioned above.
These storms are expected to develop along an outflow boundary left by this morning's ongoing MCS(storm cluster).
We have determined that the outflow boundary may be on the ND/SD border right now, but we do not have confirmation of that.

July 31: Weather Emergency (Winds Over 90 MPH)- Bismarck, ND

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN BURLEIGH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
  NORTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
  MORTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
  EASTERN OLIVER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT/1000 PM MDT/

* AT 857 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
  HAIL...AND EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90 MPH.  THE
  LEADING EDGE OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
  LARK...OR 38 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BISMARCK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CROWN BUTTE LAKE AROUND 1030 PM CDT.
  MANDAN AROUND 1035 PM CDT.
  DOUBLE DITCH INDIAN VILLAGE AROUND 1045 PM CDT.
  BALDWIN AROUND 1055 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY
BUILDING...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.