That's right, folks. The North US is out of the snowstorm. The main and minor models are now tracking into the Gulf of Mexico. Main precip will be in Texas/Louisiana/Mississippi. Most snow in Plains areas, surrounded by chance for moderate snows.This track and scenario is becoming pretty dang likely right now.
3 comments:
This is the pain that comes with following the models. You get excited for something and then watch it fizzle out.. run by agonizing run.
I am still holding out faint hope that the low will rubberband Northward again. I thought from the onset that the Southern Illinois low track was to far North, but I still (just barely) believe that the low will be better organized than the models say, and will bowling ball right across central Arkansas thru Northern Mississipi and Alabama before making a left turn up the coast a bit. It just doesn't seem like there is enough troughing to make the low dig that far South. The snowfields are not extending that far South and with a airmass boundry (quasi-front) passing through Illinois tonight, I am hoping that this sets up a baroclinic zone further North (in the States mentioned) and that the low will follow it to the coast. This Gulf coast digging track is out of character for a La Nina pattern and we don't have a deep, established Artic air mass over the central part of the CONUS to cause this type of digging.
Maybe I am just crushed that we will not be getting the proverbial "Big Daddy" here in Central Illinois.
Well, 6Z run kills by enthusiasm for this storm. I am now looking forward to the storm that will impact us January 1 - 4.
Happy Holidays!
I've definitely decided to always watch the ECMWF model when a winter storm comes. In this storm, the Euro changed, and the other models followed it.
I was holding onto that sliver of hope for lake effect, but, as you said, the 06z run also killed my hopes.
Be optimistic on this next one- the NCEP Ensemble has been driving it into the Ohio Valley.
Happy Holidays!
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