Right now, it's the ECMWF model we're concerned about. Reason why is, that when the GFS and the other models were north, the ECMWF model took to the south. Soon enough, the other models proceeded to follow the European model to the south. The ECMWF will be referred to as Euro, ECM, or European model.
We realize it's only one model that apparently changed 5 other models' minds, and it seems sort of insane and unrealistic. Well, the Euro can do that. It's puzzling.
But about every model agrees on going south. But many models aren't as far south as the ECMWF.
Those are the model concerns.
For the other concerns, the HPC decided to mess up everyone's predictions on the storm and show the heaviest snow to be in Central Illinois to Iowa. It does seem realistic, but with models changing every 6 hours, you never know what could happen.
That midrange swing I talked about with models still has potential to happen. The midrange swing is when the model track suddenly dives, but then works its way back up, ever so slowly.
However, with each run that the swing doesn't happen is each chance lost. The potential dims with every run.
I'm gaining confidence in a few things right now.
*Heaviest precip will be somewhere around Iowa and Central Illinois.
*Models will have a firm track once the storm has been sampled.
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