Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Potential for Midwest Winter Storm as the Big Thaw's end is in Sight.

The Big Thaw is expected to wane down into next week, with temperatures skimming down to the 30's once again in the Midwest.
With that cooldown comes the chance for a storm.
Several, actually.
The first one is what we will concentrate on right now.

MODEL REPORTS
ECMWF- .57 QPF, all snow for Chicago. ECMWF is currently listed as SOUTH in the way of storm tracks.
GFS- The GFS is currently listed as NORTH.
NOGAPS- The NOGAPS is having a SOUTH track.
CMC (GEM)- The CMC appears to be aiming for a north track but the thickness line isn't nearly as far up as it was with the GFS. The CMC is currently an UNDETERMINED track.
DGEX- The DGEX is taking a NORTH track.
GFS Ensemble- 3/12 show the storm taking a direct hit NORTH. However, 9/12 show the storm impacting North Illinois hard as well. UNDETERMINED.

CONSENSUS- North track is favorable ATTM, but ECMWF may easily change that.

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