Monday, June 13, 2011

June 14, 2011 Forecast

Provided by RAP/UCAR
This is tomorrow's forecast for June 14, 2011.
A low pressure system is projected to move into the Missouri/Kansas region tomorrow. This low will be attached to a high pressure by a cold front, and also to another low by a stationary front.
The low and warm front attached will push slightly northward, providing the Lower Great Lakes with a bout of showers and thunderstorms around the 10am- 3pm CDT period.
A trough will ignite some isolated showers and a small potential for thunderstorms in the Northeast. Cities like Albany and New York will be affected.
A low pressure system in south Canada with a trough extending south will also provide a base for showers and potential storms. That will make the North Plains, Midwest and West Great Lakes a wet area for tomorrow, ruling out their chances to be nominated as the Place to Be.
Unfortunately, the low pressure system and warm/stationary front will ignite potentially severe thunderstorms. Some interesting key points are how instability will reach into the 3000's. Lifted Index points will plunge to     -10 or below. Wind shear is in the range for up to 60 knots.
All of these factors combined are a good indicator of potential rotating supercell storms. The Storm Prediction Center outlined much of the region associated with the low and warm/stationary front as a slight risk of severe weather, with potential of a severe weather event (hail, damaging winds and/or tornado) exceeding 30%.

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