STORM 1- System located to the east of Mexico
The storm system to the east of Mexico has gained 10% since this morning in chance for development into a tropical cyclone. This is for increased circulation in the center of this storm system.
As for where the storm system will go, there is a good consensus that the storm system will make landfall on Mexico, cross Mexico and re-enter the game in the East Pacific. I am concerned with the potential that this storm could become a real contender for a tropical cyclone formation when it re-enters the East Pacific from recent intensity forecasts below.
This image is concerning. This is because the SHF5 model in red has appeared to won out over the other models to form a general consensus that a tropical storm at minimum is likely going into the East Pacific.
That said, I believe it will be necessary to issue bulletins going into the June 5 and beyond period.