Friday, June 3, 2011

June 3 Severe Weather Discussion

Upper Midwest region...
A strong low pressure system located in Canada will be dragging a warm front north and east through the Midwest and Great Lakes today. We can expect some showers and embedded thunderstorms as the warm front interacts with the cooler air as it passes through the areas mentioned.
Following closely behind that warm front will be a cold front. They will likely be the initiating force of these storms.
While a cold front would initiate the intense thunderstorms associated with expected high CAPE values, it's looking like the RUC and Rapid Refresh short range models just don't agree with this prospect.
I believe this is a more conditional slight risk threat due to high CAPE values. I will forecast scattered showers with potential isolated thunderstorms, but that's it. There's just not enough time for the warm air to surge up and destabilize the place in a classic set-up before the cold front sweeps through again.

Central Plains...
Attached to the cold front mentioned above will be a weak low pressure system. This low will remain stationary and hold the back end of the cold front in place as the Canadian low pressure system also mentioned above moves east.
The cold front is anticipated to stretch out horizontally and even produce some showers and thunderstorms in the See Text area. These storms are not anticipated to be severe.

It is expected that some pop-up storms will occur in the Southeast today, but I do sense that this may be a  somewhat conditional threat as well. The storms look to appear due to a stationary front, and that does seem like a storm producer. The reason I say somewhat conditional is because the short range models aren't doing much in the way of severe weather with this front. Sure, some pop-up storms will occur, but in a slight risk prospect, not much.

Today's hail outlook

Today's damaging wind outlook

Today's tornado outlook

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