Saturday, June 4, 2011

June 4- Tropical Cyclone Morning Discussion

There is a storm system near Central America that has a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next couple days. Upper level winds are beginning to die off, providing a window of opportunity for this system to get its act together. While the system is currently stationary, it will be moving in the next 5 days.
The model ensembles only got a grip on this system yesterday and are very wayward in their guesses. As of right now, some models throw it out to sea, some models throw it towards the Gulf of Mexico, and some just keep it stationary. As of right now, it's anyone's game. There is a 3 model consensus of the storm going out to the Atlantic Ocean, and a 2 model consensus of the storm going towards the Gulf. I believe that one of those tracks will be somewhat right and the other will be dead wrong. However, my beliefs on this will change with each new model run in.
As for intensity forecasts, the models are fiddling around with this system, too. However, a slight consensus has formed to keep the storms winds between 20 knots and 55 knots over the next 5 days. It does appear that the simple majority of models want the system to become a tropical storm and stay that way for a couple of days. We will just have to see.

We will be watching this system closely, and will notify you if any changes arise throughout the day.

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