Saturday, June 4, 2011

June 4- HRRR displays exploding storms in North IL

We bring you this special update from The Weather Centre concerning today's thunderstorms.
This is an hour by hour analysis of these storms as the initiate and move through the West Great Lakes. We are here to focus on North Illinois in this post.
1:00 PM, CDT
The above image is fresh off this model. It is painting the picture for initiation to occur at 1pm CDT in far east Iowa as a small cluster of showers and maybe an embedded thunderstorm. As of right now in that picture, there is an opportunity for some rotation because they are not in linear form yet.

2:00 PM CDT
At 2 pm, these storms will begin to move eastward and begin to organize themselves into a cluster of severe storms. At this point in time, it can be expected that these storms will be reaching strong to severe limits, with 50+ dbz (the color red) showing up on the radar.

3:00 PM CDT
By now at 3 pm, the storms are more organized and are blossoming as the enter North Central Illinois. At this point it is concerning because values of over 60 dbz (apricot on radar) are showing up in North Central IL. That is a very high radar reflectivity number to deal with. It can be expected that storms in that range will reach severe limits easily.

4:00 PM CDT
It is now 4:00 pm. Storms continue to explode around the organized cluster as they enter the Chicago area. These storms remain at dangerously high dbz levels on radar and will be producing severe weather. 

5:00 PM CDT 
The storms are now exiting the Chicagoland area and moving eastward. They remain very strong and are bowing out. This raises concern for a derecho, or long-lived wind event. It can be expected the potential of tornadoes will briefly rise inside this bowing structure, and damaging wind threats will skyrocket.

This has been a special briefing from The Weather Centre. We remain online before, during and after these storms move through.

No comments: