Tuesday, July 19, 2011

July 19: MCS in North Wisconsin

MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) on radar
A MCS (storm cluster) is currently moving southeast from North Wisconsin.

Discussion... 1z RUC has evolved this system quite nicely at this time. RUC 1z run weakens MCS rapidly over the next couple hours as it moves more ESE towards Lake Michigan.
Looking over current CINH/CAPEs, it looks like the MCS is entering an area of CINH, or a warm air layer aloft, that suppresses storm development.
This CINH will likely put down the storm strength. However, the reason while this MCS will likely take a ESE turn is because the hot ridge that is creating the massive intense heat wave will be moving east, thus changing the storm track farther east.
Will keep storm potential at SLGT CHC to CHC in areas like North Illinois, while portions of Michigan will have a slightly higher POPS (Probability of Precipitation), possibly reaching into CHC of precipitation.

No comments: