Wednesday, July 20, 2011

July 19 Evening Bow Echo Analysis

Unfortunately, it looks like the bow echo did stay strong and moved more west than we had anticipated.
We did believe at least a bit of the bow echo would shift more westerly as the 2z RUC/HRRR model runs came in last night, but no one predicted the storms to stay together while moving SSE.
Although the storms did weaken as they moved into a CINH area with warm air aloft that prevents rising air from doing just that, it was a lesser area of CINH than I believe other people had seen coming. I had debated on whether the CINH was enough to prevent the strong storms, and eventually decided yes, so that was my forecasting error.
You can access a loop of the radar from last night by following the link below.

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