Saturday, July 23, 2011

Mesoscale Discussion #1715

Discussion... window of opportunity exists for organized severe storms to erupt in area outlined above. From 9:00 PM CDT to 10 PM, it is possible organized severe convection will occur in that area. Problem with that assumption is how it is possible CINH is increasing. CINH is a warm layer in the atmosphere that suppresses stronger storms. Current radar indicates a small line of strong storms has already develop, but it remains to be seen if it will be the high CAPE or CINH that will win out for the storms.
Should the CAPE win out and storms develop, they will work their way SE, entering the heavily-hit Chicagoland area overnight yet again, with several more inches of rain possible. Radar indicates that other than congealing more into a small line, no strengthening has been observed in the storms themselves, which would indicate there is some resistance in the atmosphere to letting the CAPE win out.
I predict that the CAPE will probably come through and ignite a more broad expanse of storms. If the SPC believed the CINH would dominate, the slight risk of severe weather would have been removed by now.

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