Tuesday, August 2, 2011

August 2: TS Emily 5:00 CDT PM Update, Uncertainty Grows

Uncertainty is growing in this 5:00 PM CDT Update. We have gone through some things not seen in previous updates that has dramatically changed our way of thinking.
Emily seems to have built herself up to at least a moderate standpoint. While the apparent center of Emily is looking somewhat messy, she is now able to be seen as a tropical system on infrared imagery.
The official NHC track now calls for Emily to weaken to tropical depression status as she crosses the Haiti region. Haiti will certainly be in big trouble as Emily crosses over. Tropical Storm warnings have been hoisted for that area, as well as islands to the east. After weakening in Haiti, Emily will regain composure and just miss the East Coast.
Finally, spaghetti plots indicate the consensus is now more easterly, with the GFS/ECMWF reportedly dissipating Emily as she moves in the direction according to the NHC.
Because of all this new information, it has been decided that Emily now has a smaller chance of hitting Florida and areas westward. Instead, Florida could now experience high waves as Emily is supposedly slingshotted out into the Atlantic.

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