Tuesday, August 2, 2011

August 2: TS Emily Located Farther West, Possible Storm Tracks Chart Released

Tropical Storm Emily is currently in the Caribbean islands moving west. The farther Emily moves west instead of Northwest will push the track farther to the left. As of right now, though, it remains close to shore of Florida.
Earlier this morning, an attempt to locate Emily's center was found to be far west, introducing more potential of Emily striking the US. However, in the latest test, the center was found to be in the region of main convection in Emily.
The Weather Centre has produced 3 possible tracks Emily could take. Be warned that these are rough interpretations of what could happen, and these will not be exact results.
One option has Emily going into the Gulf of Mexico, where she could strengthen exponentially (in the best case scenario) and strike the US. Another possibility is what the NHC is projecting at this time. This one is not as favored as Emily continues to move more westerly. Finally, the green track was thrown in there to account for the odd GFS runs that have been observed, The black arrow is where Emily will go/ where she is.

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