Thursday, August 4, 2011

August 4: TS Emily Possibly Weakening, Models Still Rampant (11 AM Update)

Over the nighttime hours, Emily's center of circulation (COC) developed some storms near that area. That will help to shield the storm, but not for long ad it supposedly moves over the Hispaniola area. Notice how the COC is not on land of the Hispaniola area. This could indicate a more westerly track, but at this time, it's very hard to figure out.
Statistical models

Dynamical Models
In the above two images are statistical and dynamical ensembles. They are each comprised of their own sets of models. Statistical models usually go by historical reference and do not take into account of any atmospheric wind patterns and the like. Dynamical models do take that information into account, are run on supercomputers, and are therefore more accountable and reliable. The statistical models do prefer a Gulf of Mexico (GOM) track. But remember what i just said of how they don't take into account wind patterns. The dynamical models prefer Emily to keep to itself and slingshot out to sea.
This is a combination of both statistical and dynamic models. This is for the latest run (12z/ 7 am CDT). We see the statistical models shooting at the Gulf of Mexico, but there are also possibly some dynamic models trying to move Emily further westward into Florida.
The NHC official forecast continues to push easterly even as models prefer a slightly westward approach than the NHC allows for its forecast. The real test will come at 8 pm EDT tonight. If Emily begins a sharp turn NW, then the NHC forecast will probably be right. But if Emily tracks further west, the chances of a US landfall increase with every hour.
GFS Trends

NHC Trends
What we have above are trends, which put recent runs of a model together into one map to see how the forecast has evolved in recent cycles (model runs). The GFS model has been steadily tracking westward, a good sign for those who want some rain in the US. The same goes for the NHC trends, but notice how the NHC has been doing it much more hesitatingly than the GFS. That does signify that the NHC operators may be more knowledgeable than we know at this point, and may not want to move their forecast because of unknown reasons.

We will keep you up to date with the 2 pm CDT UPdate.

No comments: