This system, Invest 97L, is becoming more and more likely to develop. With the 12z run of the ECMWF, we have discovered that the ECMWF (Euro) ensembles are more westerly than the actual ECMWF. At the same time, they are slightly weaker. Bear in mind that the ECMWF was the main winner in dealing with tropical storm Emily. Without further ado, here is the ECMWF ensemble as far out as I could run it.