Sunday, November 27, 2011

12z GFS Forecasts Crushing November 30th Michigan Snowstorm

The 12z GFS is forecasting a devastating snowstorm for Michigan on November 30. While the image above encompasses 5 days from now, we have investigated and these high totals do come from the November 30th.
The interesting thing is how the NAM does not bring this solution to light. It appears that the models are divided into two camps:

Snowstorm Camp: GFS, ECMWF, JMA, UKMET

No Snowstorm Camp: NAM

(GEM has mostly rain but back-end snow, will not put in category)

I would say that there ought to be a snowstorm, but may not be as severe as some models are projecting.


Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.Could you tell me where the storm track is forecasted to travel? Also,is there an outside chance that eastern Ohio could share in some of this heavy snow or not?My local forecast is calling for snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.The temps are supposed to range in the mid to upper thirties.Also,do you see any other winter storms in the long range that way form in the next few weeks? Sorry for all the questions.I just love to study the weather,especially in the winter time.

Andrew said...

The storm will be traveling in a northerly direction. There is a very outside chance that East Ohio could receive some heavy snow, so lighter accumulations are in the question. I do not want to check out the models right now because of how bad they are right now at this point in the longer range. You can ask as many questions as you want- we will answer all of them.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.Thanks.I understand about the long range models not being very accurate right now.Hopefully the models are not like this through the entire winter.I'm sure you hope that too.