12z ECMWF Shows 2-Footer Snowstorm for Northeast...Will it Happen?
The ECMWF is showing a once in a lifetime snowstorm for the Northeast on January 4th. Above, we see the ECMWF image for the January 4th timeframe. On the top right image we see the incredibly strong low pressure system moving up the coast of the East US. If this were to verify, it would be ALL SNOW. Totals, if this were to happen, would EASILY EXCEED 18 INCHES OF SNOW. So the question is, will this happen?
The NAO says NO. When the NAO is positive, historically snowstorms are fighting a very uphill battle to happen, thus the lack of snowstorms this winter as we have seen a very positive NAO. Despite this, we are trying to see if the LRC pattern may have this storm in its sights. By using a comparison between 45-50 days (the estimated cycle time this year), a storm did show up 45-50 days ago that can be matched loosely with this ECMWF forecast. We will continue monitoring this, but the +NAO can be a real killer.