Friday, December 23, 2011

Personal Winter Forecast: Brighton MI, Mora MN, Kent OH, Ellicottville NY


Precipitation: Above Normal (At least +1 inch)
Temperature: Around Normal*
Snowfall: Ending somewhat around normal*
*Confidence is lower than usual.

Michigan is relying on this pattern change. If it happens, temperatures will cool off and snow will come alive. However, we had to put the lower confidence asterisk because of how the temperature and snowfall indices rely on this pattern change that might not be present in winter long enough to have any effect.


Precipitation: Around Normal
Temperature: Cold (At least -2 degrees below normal)
Snowfall: Around Normal*
Confidence is lower than usual.

Precipitation and snowfall are also reliant somewhat on the pattern change. Should the pattern change occur, the snowfall and precipitation would be in a much better condition for confidence.


Precipitation: Well Above Normal (Threatening Records)
Temperature: Ending Slightly Above Normal
Snowfall: Ending Around Normal or Above Normal

Ohio has been breaking precipitation records, and with more rain coming, it is only anticipated that more records will be broken. Temperature is a tough field- Ohio is in the same boat as the Northeast, which is above normal for temps, but if enough cold shots come down, they may end up slightly above normal.


Precipitation: Above Normal (At least +2 inches)
Temperature: Above Normal (At least +2 degrees)
Snowfall: Possibly Below Normal*
*Confidence is lower than usual.

A warm fall is leading into a warm winter this time around. If the pattern change comes around, we may be able to change that snowfall to better grounds, as may the precipitation, but for now, it's all about the warmth.

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