Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Pattern Change Update- Too Little Too Late??

Posted December 21--

Is the Pattern Change coming too little too late??

The ECMWF seasonals. They are forecasts made by the ECMWF model for seasonal forecasts. We have heard from the weather world that the December seasonals are not looking good, temperature wise, for the rest of winter. While this seems like a long stretch, let me tell you why it is possible.

Stratospheric Temperatures.
The thing is, they just aren't warming fast enough for any significant pattern change to happen until Mid January- and that's best case scenario. The way these temperatures are heading is, in my point of view, signaling that winter won't be present for the foreseeable future. As soon as these 30mb, 50mb and 70mb temperatures start jumping to warmer temperatures, we will be able to set a timeframe. Until then, there's no point in wildly guessing.
The NAO and AO are supposedly going to remain trending positive until this pattern change occurs, so a Northeast snowstorm is looking unlikely right now and past the first week or two of 2012. That is quite long range, so our confidence on that is low.
We will keep you updated for any further information about this pattern change, right here, on The Weather Centre.


Anonymous said...

Hi Andrew, Ill be the first to say that really sucks. I myself am a snow lover too. Where i live in Ohio we have gotten so much rain theres no more places for it to go. I would rather deal with snow then rain right now. I am sick of rain.

Andrew said...

Yeah, this is a pretty bad pattern.
Eventually, it will break- we just don't know when.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.I agree with anonymous no.1.All of Ohio has seen a lot of rain since fall.Could this be a sign of things to come when the pattern does change,like heavy snow? I like your forecast for Holmesville,Ohio.

Andrew said...

Yes- Ohio is in the perfect storm track. However, there is just no cold air. If the pattern breaks, it would be heavy snow.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.Hopefully in January it does.