We are seeing indications that the northern part of the storm track (energy hitting the Northwest, sliding south and sometimes coming up north again as a Panhandle Hooker type storm. Those are the types of storms that give MAJOR snows to people.
The HPC Discussion
PREFER TO TEMPER WITH 30% ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE AMIDUNCERTAINTY AND LOWERED EXPECTATIONS. THIS SOLUTION WOULD LIMITSYSTEM EJECTION OUT INTO/OUT FROM THE S-CENTRAL US NEXT WEEKEND TOA PERIOD WHEN NRN STREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT SHOULDBECOME MORE DOMINANT.
We are seeing an interesting scenario unfold, where the HPC believes the cutoff low system will stop and make way for the northern stream trough development. Upper Level Lows can be very powerful, so this could get very interesting.
We are also watching a feature that has appeared on the GFS:
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| hour 228 |
At hour 228, we see a low pressure system sitting around the Texas/Oklahoma border area. We are seeing a ridge offshore the West Coast help nudge the system slowly eastward, but also a ridge offshore the east coast that may push the system north.
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| hour 240 |
At hour 240, we are seeing the system strengthen, and what appears to be some colder air move in behind the system. Both ridges offshore both coasts are still in place. At this point, we are watching the East Coast ridge to see if it will force the system north.
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| hour 252 |
At hour 252, we see the system still stronger, but now moving farther east and likely putting down some plowable snow. Considering that the freezing line is around Chicago, we could see plowable snow in Iowa, Nebraska and parts of Missouri.
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| hour 264 |
At this point the system gets even stronger and starts moving north towards Canada. Plowable snow potentials are still widespread from Illinois to West Tennessee. Accumulations could be large, but since this is long range, we don't even know if it will happen.
Considering that the northern stream will start to open up, we may see some energy transfer from the northern stream into the system if it is to develop, as this system originates from the Southwest.
12 comments:
When you said it could get Chicago could Northwest Indiana be included in that?
Maybe. Right now it could go either way- there appears to be a sharp cutoff around that area.
Thank you that was me I just accidentally click anonymous and didn't notice.
If this storm were to happen,would the supposed pattern change be in place?Also,do you really see the pattern changing this winter or will it just be short lived shots of artic air then it warms up in a few days and repeats this pattern?
Anonymous: The pattern change will happen. While it may not be a complete flip, it will be a change.
is the southeast(Charlotte NC)looking for some good snows out of this?
If there are nor'easters and coastal storms, possibly. It is encouraging to see a northern stream take over.
I never really caught on to when this was for.
Is kansas city in this area of possible snow/
AJ: You can take the hours shown and divide them by 24 for how many days out it is.
Ben: Too far out to say. We don't even know if it will happen.
would Raleigh,nc get snow or maybe even a mix out of this and also whats the timeframe?
I have done that before and messed up but I'll try again.
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