Sunday, January 8, 2012

Pattern Change is Coming

I am sticking with my idea that a cooler, potentially snowier pattern will arrive mid-late January. After looking through evidence, there is no reason to deny the pattern change. It is coming, folks.
I believe that winter will go out like a lion. You see, everything in the physical world wants to achieve equilibrium. Right now, there isn't much equilibrium to see, especially seeing as we are going through a major pattern change. I think that cold will be dominant from late January into March, still with shots of warm air.

Stratospheric Warming has taken big leaps recently, with a Significant Stratospheric Warming event occurring. This has helped warm the atmosphere as ridges push into the polar vortex to disrupt it. As these rigs disrupt the vortex, we will start seeing disturbances fly into the country as remnants from the strong lows in the polar vortex.
We are seeing the La Nina spread the cooler temperature anomalies westward across the ENSO monitoring area, indicating that the La Nina will be here to ride out the winter. While the SOI believes an El Nino is coming, I do not believe that and think that the assumption is wrong.
The now-occurring disruption of the polar vortex will lead to a negative Arctic Oscillation, which in turn will lead to cold air coming into the US. This cold air is not the cold air shot that will happen in the next several days. It will happen sooner rather than later, with the persistent cold likely entering the country in mid-late January.
The North Atlantic Oscillation is forecasted to go negative as well. If the Arctic Oscillation (AO) goes negative, usually the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will as well, because they are so closely related. Both are favorable for snow and cold in the Northeast.

26 comments:

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.Nicely done revision.Are you thinking that this would also include my area in Ohio for snowy/cold weather when the pattern does change?Holmes county Ohio.Also,do you think once the change does occcur,that storms will be able to travel up the Ohio valley when the jetstream moves south?

Anonymous said...

My local weather forecasters(Charlotte NC) are saying that if more north easters come,then the southeast(Charlotte)will see some good snows?is that possible
THX

bweather said...

I feel the same way about winter will go out like a lion this year. The teleconnections are there showing the change is coming. With everything staying positive for so long, it's about time our teleconnections go negative. They can stay positive all winter long, but the chances are more in favor for negative this year. There are plenty of people on weather blogs still saying torch, but I know they are wrong. Thanks Andrew!

Anonymous said...

Is the DGEX weather model accurate most of the time or is it a terrible model. If it is somewhat accurate, you need to look at the 06z run. Could that storm really happen for the southeast or is the model just blowing smoke. Thanks

Andrew said...

Mike: Yes and yes.

Anonymous #1: That is true.

bweather: They do have grounds to keep calling for a torch if they're going by what's happened, but with all this new evidence, they have to say pattern change.

Anonymous #2: The DGEX is generally regarded as a bad model. I did see the 6z run however- it is pretty crazy.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.When the pattern change occurs,have you seen any indications in your studies you have been doing how far the jetstream will be?What i meanm is when storms form from the southwest,will they be able to pull alot of moisture into the storms?

Andrew said...

As of right now, we cannot accurately predict a storm track.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi.Andrew.I understand.Thanks anyway.

Anonymous said...

how much snow do u think the nyc area will get this winter
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Andrew said...

Mike: I forgot to look at the second part of your question. Yes, if storms do come from the southwest they will gather Gulf moisture.

Anonymous: Since NYC is right in the thick of coastal storms that can have extreme cutoffs, I am not as confident as I would like to be, but I would say up to 20 inches as a conservative guess. Now, I'm a more familiar forecaster for the Midwest/Plains, so I can't say I know if that is a lot or a little for NYC standards.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.Did you see the snow that is going to occur in Texas tonight thru Tuesday?You would think that weather would be in the northern part of the country.Also,i was reading a post on the left hand side of the page.Do you really believe there will be a very active storm track late Jan.on?

eddie said...

how much snow do you think detroit/SE Michigan will get for the rest of winter

Andrew said...

Mike: With all the changes, I can't imagine that something will NOT happen from all this change at once.

Eddie: We cannot accurately say right now. There is a lot of uncertainty as the pattern changes.

Anonymous said...

when do u think nyc will get their first snow

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.Do you think any storms will be BREWING in the 16-21 timeframe this month?

Peterbilt5000 said...

Any updates on this change? Can we expect any snow in the next week for the midwest?

I have noticed that this cold snap seems to be a bit short lived. Is that the case?

Teddyz1919 said...

Have you ever used or studied the " LRC" ( lezaks revolving cycle) ?? My local abc tv station is swearing by it!! Milwaukee, WI. Total snowfall in miltown this year...... 2 in over 5-6 "storm" episodes!! Booooo hissssss. Where's the snow?????

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.Just curious if you seen or heard of the BIG snowstorm that parts of Alaska got a few days ago?They are supposed to get another one in a few days?I would consider this quite amazing!Hopefully when the pattern changes,we can see some of them down here in the lower 48.

Andrew said...

Anonymous: Probably late January/Early February.

Mike: With the pattern change more developed, probably.

Teddyz1919: The LRC has been through about 3-4 cycles thus far. Each cycle is 45-50 days this year. They would ALL be snow if it weren't for this horrible pattern.

Mike: Alaska gets all the energy from the Pacific, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a storm veer south and hit the US instead of Alaska. It depends on the jet stream.

AJ said...

Mike I got on to the website.It is a good website thank you.Andrew I will never quit coming to your blog.

Andrew said...

Peterbilt5000: Yes, it is short lived. But watch for snow in the late part of the month.

peterbilt5000 said...

Andrew, I have been watching for snow in all parts of every month!

Nothing here since 12/9/11

don nelson said...

Forecasters all winter long have said cold and snowy! But, it's been the opposite. When in a dry period....do not predict moisture. This winter will continue to break records (warm and dry)! I hope next year you guys predict warm and dry.........thanks

Andrew said...

Don: I can tell you from a forecasters standpoint that no one expected this horrible pattern. But this warm and dry period will be ending.

don nelson said...

Hi Andrew, Wasn't coming down on ya. It's just they have so far missed it by a mile, and this year it's hard to believe anything lately. I do like your prediction although.

Andrew said...

Don: I agree- forecasting has come to a pretty bad point right now. Not trying to be on the offensive on the last post, by the way. ;)