Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Pattern Change Update

While looking over the latest ECMWF north hemisphere maps I saw a resurging polar vortex at the end of the 10 day timeframe. Whether this could happen remains to be seen, but a stormy pattern for the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley is looking better.

15 comments:

eddie said...

does thos mean snow for detroit? and what did you mean by the CFS v2 did a "backflip"

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.This sounds promising.I like the word stormy for the Ohio Valley.Would you consider my area in Ohio where i'm located Holmes county the Ohio Valley?We have not had much rain recently here in Ohio.Hopefully the next significant precip.will be in the form of snow.Do you think this is quite possible?A side note,it's about 10 degrees warmer today at this time compared to yesterday.

peterbilt5000 said...

Some local forecasters and Accuweather are thinking that mid next week Iowa might see some snow falls, and colder temps.

But, from what I can tell, it looks to be warm again.

Aran Jacobs said...

Peterbilt5000,I see the same forecast for northwest Indiana.

Andrew said...

Eddie: It may mean some snow for Detroit. We had thought that the CFS v2 had gone to a much stormier, colder pattern in a backflip from its recent torch-like temperatures, but it isn't as big a change as we were expecting.

Mike: Whenever Ohio Valley is mentioned, you can consider yourself affected. After all, the Ohio Valley is named with Ohio in it ;)

Peterbilt: With a potentially stormier pattern, that may verify.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.Is the 12z ECMWF going bonkers? What i mean is it detecting a major storm or something? I'm not good at reading this models,but i looked on Sat.the 14'th of this month it showed two lows coming out of the southwest moving northeast.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.This goes with my previous post.I found this on the 500mb height anomalies na at hour 240.

Aran Jacobs said...

Mike,Accuweather is predicting snow for the great lakes and ohio valley for the 15-16-17.

Aran Jacobs said...

Have you any thoughts it is a cutoff low?I was thinking this because it looks like it will stall out over the great lakes for the three days after it ejects from the southwest.

Aran Jacobs said...

Peterbilt5000,what part of Iowa is that for.If it is eastern than I might have found a large cutoff low snowstorm in the plains,midwest,great lakes,and the ohio valley.This is because Mike said he saw a low moving northeast out of southeast.Tis could get moisture as it moves nshore the US.It is supposed to rain/snow in albuqurqee in the afternoon of the 13th and all day January 14th.It then moves accoss the plains on the 15th and reaches the Great lakes late that afternoon.From what I know it is supposed to stall out over the Great Lakes and part of Iowa for a day or to and then get lashed on to a jet stream and move out of the Great Lakes area mid-morning JAN 16 and flow into the Ohio Valley on the 16,17.My current indications for snowfall in the Great Lakes is 6-11 inches with snow drifts as high 16inches caused by 40 mph winds.COULD YOU PLEASE GIVE ME YOUR OPINION.

Aran Jacobs said...

This goes with the post above,I meant out of the southwest.

Andrew said...

Mike: Yes, the ECMWF is projecting a major storm to hit the Great Lakes/Midwest.

Aran: It may be some sort of cutoff low strengthened with Gulf Moisture.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.Would this eventually affect the Ohio area with snow.

peterbilt5000 said...

Aran. I am easter IA. I do hope we get something. Its kinda hard listening to all these people saying how great the weather is.

Plus, we are having record highs today, and I just can't see such a HUGE pattern swing any time soon. The weather we "HAD" forcasted for wednesday of next week is all but gone from all my forecastes maps.

AJ said...

Thank you!