Friday, January 20, 2012

Severe Weather Event (January 20, 2012)

Forecast Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) Index for 18 hours out
Higher MCS values indicate higher potential for strong storms
There is a potential for strong thunderstorms to put down some tornadoes or initiate some tornadic activity in west Tennessee this evening. Above we have the MCS index, which has values above 3 for parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. These values above 3 indicate a 'favorable' outlook for a mesoscale convective system (MCS) to form.
This is basically a forecast for tornadoes 15 hours out. We can see elevated levels of tornado potentials in West Tennessee that will be caused by a frontal system associated with the snowstorm the Midwest is receiving.

Chance of a tornado: 50-60%
Where a tornado is most likely: Jackson, Tennessee
Confidence a tornado will touch down: Moderate

While it is hard to forecast for tornadoes, this does have potential to be a tornadic situation, as it is uncommon to see the Tornado Mask map above have color on it.
Stay safe, everyone.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I told you Andrew the other day that we might as well go ahead and get the stupid tornadoes and flooding. I wish I was wrong . Send me some snow for West Tn.