 |
| 1mb level temperatures |
Recent stratosphere prognosis is a grim one upon observation of recent stratospheric temperatures. Image above displays 1mb temperatures. Looking at this image, it is apparent that significant cooling in the stratosphere has occurred, even leading to the erase of this winter's previous sudden stratospheric warming. This is only a small slice of the cake. . .as the 1mb level is just the top of the stratosphere. There remains a lot to look over.
 |
| 70mb Temperatures |
 |
| Analysis of temperature anomalies by heights |
My Thoughts
I expect cooling to continue from the 1mb level into the 50mb levels, which are currently experiencing cooling, and possibly propagate down to the 70mb level. Seeing the peak of the current warming in the 70mb level coming on soon, I would not be surprised to find a cooling trend put a dent in the recent warming at that level.
As a consequence from all this cooling. . .my winter outlook is grim. This warming will not come soon enough to provide any pattern change in February. The best I am hoping for is cold shots following storms. I still am expecting snowstorms to occur, but not with the cold that would typically be in place. Therefore. . .I believe ice storm risks are increased.
I will have a February-March outlook out tomorrow at 12:00 PM CST. For those banking on my colder and snowier outlook. . .new day, new outlook. . .
10 comments:
Now I'm confused. When there was stratospheric warming, it was warm in the Plains and Ohio Valley. Snow was much further north. Now stratosphere is cooling, but I'm hearing that it will get cold next weekend as pattern amplifies. It was mentioned in AFD's in Missouri and Iowa. I just don't understand....I guess stratospheric doesn't have a big effect on sensible weather. This winter is so confusing. Teleconections and winter outlooks change drastically everyday. Now you are giving up winter which is surprising, since you are always optimistic.
o well maybe its a model fluke and it will warm drastically tomarrow
whats the future for detroit
Anonymous: Yes, the stratosphere is a funny thing. But the effects from anything are usually felt 2-4 weeks after said event occurs.
I am not giving up on winter just yet.
Eddie: This is not a model forecast- these are observations.
Time will tell.You cannot count on the models this winter at all.The 6-10 day outlooks keep calling for above normal temps and precip.I'm not so sure that there will be much winter left this season.
I think it will be cold late feb. and march
Anonymous: These are not models that are being used.
Raymond: Time will tell.
Hello Andrew.What are your thoughts on a snowstorm next friday?The locals are saying a storm with heavy snow is very possible for Ohio.I have no idea what models they are using.Please get backwith me if you see anything.Thanks.
will charlotte nc get some snow in feb.-march? wat bout cold 2?
Anonymous: You can see the answer tomorrow on our FEB-MAR update and comment with questions if you still have them.
Hello Andrew, what you say about back-loaded winters is scarily true. When winters are mild and generally low in snow, peolple tend to let their guard down. I think that a lot of people will get a big one soon. Thanks again for the time and effort you put into your posts.
Post a Comment