Friday, January 27, 2012

Stratospheric Warming Update: Grim Outlook

1mb level temperatures
Discussion...
Recent stratosphere prognosis is a grim one upon observation of recent stratospheric temperatures. Image above displays 1mb temperatures. Looking at this image, it is apparent that significant cooling in the stratosphere has occurred, even leading to the erase of this winter's previous sudden stratospheric warming. This is only a small slice of the cake. . .as the 1mb level is just the top of the stratosphere. There remains a lot to look over.
70mb Temperatures
70mb temperatures show signs of encouragement, as the big thing about stratospheric warming is to try to get it as close to the surface as possible. At this time. . .we are seeing a warming event come over the 70mb level in the stratosphere. I do anticipate it to peak in the next week. . .and possibly see some cooling as the cooler anomalies in the upper levels of the stratosphere may try to propagate down into the lower levels.
Analysis of temperature anomalies by heights
The cooler air anomalies are shown well in the zonal analysis, with -12≥ temperature anomalies being found from 1mb down through the 5mb level. Do not be deceived. . .as we have found cooling to still be occurring down to the 50mb level. . .leaving only the 70mb level to be the last sign of encouragement in the current stratospheric analysis.


My Thoughts
I expect cooling to continue from the 1mb level into the 50mb levels, which are currently experiencing cooling, and possibly propagate down to the 70mb level. Seeing the peak of the current warming in the 70mb level coming on soon, I would not be surprised to find a cooling trend put a dent in the recent warming at that level.
As a consequence from all this cooling. . .my winter outlook is grim. This warming will not come soon enough to provide any pattern change in February. The best I am hoping for is cold shots following storms. I still am expecting snowstorms to occur, but not with the cold that would typically be in place. Therefore. . .I believe ice storm risks are increased.
I will have a February-March outlook out tomorrow at 12:00 PM CST. For those banking on my colder and snowier outlook. . .new day, new outlook. . .

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Now I'm confused. When there was stratospheric warming, it was warm in the Plains and Ohio Valley. Snow was much further north. Now stratosphere is cooling, but I'm hearing that it will get cold next weekend as pattern amplifies. It was mentioned in AFD's in Missouri and Iowa. I just don't understand....I guess stratospheric doesn't have a big effect on sensible weather. This winter is so confusing. Teleconections and winter outlooks change drastically everyday. Now you are giving up winter which is surprising, since you are always optimistic.

eddie said...

o well maybe its a model fluke and it will warm drastically tomarrow

whats the future for detroit

Andrew said...

Anonymous: Yes, the stratosphere is a funny thing. But the effects from anything are usually felt 2-4 weeks after said event occurs.
I am not giving up on winter just yet.

Eddie: This is not a model forecast- these are observations.

Anonymous said...

Time will tell.You cannot count on the models this winter at all.The 6-10 day outlooks keep calling for above normal temps and precip.I'm not so sure that there will be much winter left this season.

raymond said...

I think it will be cold late feb. and march

Andrew said...

Anonymous: These are not models that are being used.

Raymond: Time will tell.

mike paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.What are your thoughts on a snowstorm next friday?The locals are saying a storm with heavy snow is very possible for Ohio.I have no idea what models they are using.Please get backwith me if you see anything.Thanks.

Anonymous said...

will charlotte nc get some snow in feb.-march? wat bout cold 2?

Andrew said...

Anonymous: You can see the answer tomorrow on our FEB-MAR update and comment with questions if you still have them.

ERN WX said...

Hello Andrew, what you say about back-loaded winters is scarily true. When winters are mild and generally low in snow, peolple tend to let their guard down. I think that a lot of people will get a big one soon. Thanks again for the time and effort you put into your posts.