Wednesday, February 22, 2012

12z ECMWF Shows Superstorm in East Coast- But Will it Happen?

This is the 12z ECMWF at hour 192, displaying 850mb temperatures and sea level pressure. We can see a very strong storm system on the East Coast at hour 192. There is a lot of cold air in place over the entire Northeast so that significant (1 foot+) snow accumulations would be almost guaranteed.

But will it happen?


I say no. The same ECMWF model run that is showing this superstorm is also showing a major positive NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). A positive NAO will essentially make a ridge that diverts any storms away from the East Coast. Just simply using that, it is easy to see why this ECMWF run is flawed.
Other than the NAO, The Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) will be in a raging negative phase, indicating the likelihood of a ridge in the East and storm systems in the West half of the country.


ERN WX said...

This what I call model Inconsistency. It shows indices which are unfavorable for this solution to occur. The best idea is don't buy this solution, yet. My thoughts, from a meteorlogical view is that this model run is garbage. Even though the euro is the best model in many meteorolgists opinions ( some say the CMC is) do not always buy its solutions. Andrew, I hope you start feeling better soon. Thanks for the great work.

ERN WX said...

Good post.