Monday, February 13, 2012

February 14-18 Possible Snow Event (Issued 2/13/12)

Sorry for the lack of posts on this storm- the models got too confusing during the time period.

The 0z and 12z ECMWF has come back with the storm phasing in this timeframe, as I had expected may happen several days ago when I mentioned how models can revert back to the old track after shifting dramatically.

Here's the 12z ECMWF hour 72. At this point, we are close enough to the timeframe of the storm that this is probably going to happen, unless something dramatically changes (which would be very unexpected).
The ECMWF is showing a large warm sector of air being thrown out ahead of the storm, leading me to assume that this will be a rain to snow event for many just south of the IL/MI/NY border lines.

Since it is close enough, I have decided to bring back the analogues.
The 'best' analogue for this storm was in an El Nino phase, so I ruled that out. The analogue I picked out here has very similar conditions to what is forecast by the GFS. Here is what the 2nd best analogue (March 4th, 1982) had in terms of snowfall.
I think these 72 hour amounts are a bit too far south, but do seem reasonable nonetheless. As of now, because I don't have time to make a forecast, I think this is what I will be banking on for right now. It is very much subject to change, as other models do also have a say in this.

Just for kicks, here's what the top analogue (the one I discounted due to the El Nino) showed for snowfall from the February 15, 1992 snowstorm.

-Andrew

7 comments:

Aran said...

Do you think the track could shift more south?Nobody is saying this is going to be too bad.

eddie said...

Its going to be rain no snow

mike paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.I myself believe my area in Ohio will not see any big storms.All the conditions are not favorable for any.The NWS has above normal temps.into march.I can just hope next year will be more snowier.

mike paulocsak said...

This goes with my last comment.The lows going west of Ohio will just produce rain,not snow.The low needs to go south of Ohio and move northeast,not west of Ohio.It draws up too much warm air when it moves west of Ohio.I don't see any going south of Ohio this winter.

Raymond said...

I agree with you Mike. The pattern never changed all winter. There will probably still be snow this winter but it won't last with the mild temps. I'm sure next year will be different.

Anonymous said...

hey andrew, check out Cyclone Giovanna right of the east coast of Madagascar...

Heres a nice like from The Weather Channel® includes a nice pic too

- Reid

Anonymous said...

Link:

http://beta.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/powerful-giovanna-madgascar_2012-02-13