Tuesday, February 14, 2012

February 14-18 Snow Event- Model Discussion (2/14/12)

Happy Valentines Day!

We re starting to see a southward shift in the models. Here's the last 4 runs of the GFS model.
You can see the trend south from earlier model runs using the color code on the bottom right. The storm we are tracking is the one going through South Missouri and Northwest Ohio. If this were to continue, cities such as Des Moines and Chicago may get in on the snowfall. That is yet to be determined, though.

However, some models are actually trending north...
CMC Model last 2 runs

The CMC Model has shifted north from it's last 12z run yesterday and now puts the system right over Chicago. I have yet to determine why and cannot this morning as I am unusually busy.
UKMET Model
Even though the CMC model is going north and the GFS is going south, the UKMET looks like it's taking neutral ground at this point. I think, however, that based on the proximity to the event occurring and model trending that I will be looking towards the GFS for guidance.

In these times of model turbulence it is important to see 0z verification to determine potential accuracy.
UKX- UKMET
NGX- NOGAPS
EMX- ECMWF
The models closest to the bottom of the image are the most accurate. Using that, we see that the ECMWF is the model to watch until hour 72, when the SREF Ensembles take over the show. The ECMWF has frames that are 24 hours in between, so it's hard to track the storm at this time. So let's see the SREF.

The 21z (0z) run of the SREF Ensembles are still split right now. And they have a right to be. While the event is only a couple days out, the models themselves are not exactly pulled together. This is the 0z SREF, which shows 2 possible paths- the CMC (North) path against the GFS (South) path. The UKMET is in neutral territory.

Here is the latest 3z (6z) SREF Ensembles. These ones have cut down on the northern path and appear to be headed for the GFS or UKMET solutions, which are the southern track and neutral territory, respectively. I have always liked using the ensembles, as a group consensus is worth more than a singular proposition.

Analogues can still come in use right now.
Here's snowfall from the March 7th, 1999 snowstorm.
This is my personal favorite, as it is using a La Nina phase for the analogue. This could very well be possible for the Midwest and Ohio Valley. I don't know about the northeast, I have to read up on it.

All in all, this storm should be very interesting. When new data comes in this afternoon, I will certainly let you know.

-Andrew

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

Why are you using analogues in this atypical winter?

Andrew said...

Just because it's a bad winter doesn't mean everything is incorrect.

Anonymous said...

RAIN FOR OHIO EASTWARD.

Anonymous said...

Why ruin what has been a rare and nearly perfect winter so far? Push it up into Canada where it belongs!

Anonymous said...

Its life mature nature is coming back to be known. Give us a taste of how bad next winter is really going to be. From what some say next winter could be one for the history books.

Anonymous said...

Hello Anonymous.I heard that too about next winter.

Anonymous said...

This storm looks to have very very little snow in the U.S. Maybe 2-4 inches for a lucky few. No way Chicago gets anywhere near that much snow and forget about the northeast snow. Not a good comparison.

mike paulocsak said...

We need a winter like 1995-1996.In this winter was the FAMOUS 1996 BLIZZARD.It affected the northeast,Ohio Valley,and the mid-atlantic.January.6-8,1996.

mike paulocsak said...

Another good winter was the winter of 1992-1993.This winter produced the 1993 SUPERSTORM in March.1993.Days off school from this one.Remember like it was yesterday.Roads were closed for a few days in my area.Especially the township roads.Drifts were as high as the mirrors on the dump trucks that plowed them.The township had to break out the V-BLADE to bust through the deep drifts.This was an AWESOME storm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
miike paulocsak said...

Hello Anonymous no.7.These are not my opinions,these are FACTS!!!!!!

Maine man said...

How about the 1978 blizzard. It's about as big as it gets in them parts.

mike paulocsak said...

Hello Maine Man.I'm sorry i forgot about that one.I was only two years old when that occured.I remember it a little bit.We lost electric for a whole week due to the EXTREMELY high winds.The electric cooperative in my area in Ohio had the national guard patrol for downed power lines and poles.This helped the electric company alot!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Are you guys tracking the storm for the northeast this weekend it looks like a nor Easter I am so excited

Anonymous said...

ALERT,ALERT,ALERT!!!!!!!!! THERE IS GOING TO BE A MAJOR EASTCOAST STORM THIS WEEKEND!!!

Anonymous said...

I WOULD RECOMMEND THAT YOU CHECK YOUR MODELS PAGE.THERE SEEMS TO BE A SECURITY ISSUE IT STATES.

ERN WX said...

From what I know about Andrew, he is probably keeping a close eye on the storm.

Anonymous said...

andrew stop trolling on MY website!??????

Andrew said...

Anonymous #1: If you can specify the models page issue, that would be appreciated.

Anonymous #2: This is not your website. It is not funny and frankly this is not the place for that.

Anonymous said...

why did you delete my comment,i was just trying to help you. Whoever that was trying to hang out with you was rude and shouldn't have done that.But what i don't get is you deleting my comments it rude ignorant mean and selfish of you. Didn't your mom teach you manners!im very offended and never coming back...LEGIT!

Andrew said...

It was deleted because the conversation was at a point that I was not comfortable with. I appreciate you trying to help, but I deleted all comments so the conversation would not be of further issue. If you are offended, then I apologize, but if I find something on here that I find uncomfortable I have the right to remove it without further notice.