Thursday, March 1, 2012

3/1/12 Evening Prognosis

Not much of an update, but here's what it is.

For people wondering if a High Risk will be issued by the SPC tomorrow, I personally say probably not, because of lower CAPE and not enough dynamics likely to come together for violent tornadoes.

Tomorrow morning, I will come out with a new tornado map.



Joshua Steiner said...

I wouldn't bet on what you are saying. Some are saying that this outbreak may be similar to the 1974 outbreak. Anyways, didn't you read the SPC discussion for tomorrow's outbreak, they did not specifically mention that they would upgrade, but they do seem really worried about a severe weather threat especially from west central Ohio southward towards Nashville.

Joshua Steiner said...

I mean *enhance tornado threat* not severe threat.

mike paulocsak said...

The outbreak that occured back in 1974 in Xenia Ohio was devastating.Tomorrow will probably not be as bad.1974 Xenia outbreak was one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks Southwest Ohio has ever seen.Who know's anythings possible.Let's just hope that nothing bad happens.Stay safe!

Andrew said...

Joshua: I cannot find adequate data on the 1974 outbreak to get the gist of it, but I'm saying that there likely won't be a tremendous outbreak of which high risk status is warranted. But only the SPC knows.

Mike: Agreed.

ERN WX said...

Hello, Andrew. My thoughts for tomorrow's outbreak are that they will use a moderate risk for svr wx tomorrow. With cape levels 1000- 2000 j/kg it is not exactly the the number that would really require a high risk. I this were a month from now cape levels would be higher and a high risk would be required. Plus the trough appears to be more of a positive tilt trough. I have heard rumors thought that some members of the SPC want a high risk. I will look at things tomorrow and make up my mind. Currently I agree, moderate risk should work. I do believe a high risk may be warranted for tomorrow. I will be watching the storms myself.