|Probability of Severe Weather|
|Probability of any severe weather events|
This risk of severe weather is probably going to verify, with a sturdy 1000 j/kg of instability combined with 50 knots of veering winds to make for some large hail in the stronger storm cells. I'm not looking at a huge severe weather event- probably along the lines of several isolated storm cells over a broad area with a few in the realm of severe weather.
As a warm front quickly followed by a cold front progresses east, this should be the instigator for any storm cells that may form. Imposing the frontal systems against instability and shearing makes me think that this event will be supported by the veering winds/shearing, which may not come through for all of the storm cells in question.