Saturday, March 10, 2012

Severe Weather Risk in Arkansas for Tomorrow

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow in Arkansas, with even a 30% risk of severe weather present in the state, making for a high-end slight risk area.

This risk had not gone unnoticed and has been tracked here at The Weather Centre for at least a couple days.

The storm system responsible will be ejecting northeast. As it does, showers and thunderstorms will loosely form along a somewhat linear boundary, maintaining the possibility for some discrete super cells. Here's a very localized image forecast off the most recent WRF, thanks to WxCaster.

This is 6-hour precipitation, so it does not show the actual storm cells. However, it is showing several strong storm cells, judging by precipitation put down in this image. Arkansas looks to be raked by these storms tomorrow.

Here's what's holding me back from being convinced that something big will happen. There will be a lot of helicity in the atmosphere, but the problem is the lack of instability, which is in color. To get the strong storm cells, we would want CAPE values in the yellow, and I believe that is why the SPC will not go with a moderate risk of severe weather tomorrow.

Here's one of the more intense WRF members from the University of Illinois WRF member suite. It shows strong storms raking Missouri and Arkansas.

This is maximum reflectivity, meaning this is theoretically as bad as things could get with the storms, and  believe that this will not verify in Missouri. Arkansas seems more reasonable, however, with those red lines likely being more of discrete super cells than diagonal line segments.

Tomorrow, we will be your storm central for the severe storms, here at The Weather Centre.

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